This is Part II in a series of articles entitled: The
Economics of Video Entertainment
In yesterdays article, I commented that :
At Perceptric, we have commenced an attempt at applying
our P2P
Value method against the relatively new science of hedonic valuation.
Early results have enabled us to see patterns that are
contra-indicative to standard online Nielsen type
ratings.
Programs that would appear to be decreasing in popularity
on TV would appear to be increasing in popularity on the P2P networks.
e.g.: Flash-forward.
Flash Forward? Every statistic appears to publicly call me a liar.
Source: http://www.tvu.org.ru/index.php?show=episodes&sid=27955
Yep it looks like it’s dying. But hang on a minute, lets see the clicks per day.
A Histogram of the data shows us a very different picture.
It shows solid growth with the exceptions of the 7th and 10th episodes.
What do I base this on?
Hits per day.
|
Episode |
HPD |
|
E1 |
44.46723 |
|
E2 |
46.09355 |
|
E3 |
48.05903 |
|
E4 |
50.77546 |
|
E5 |
53.82808 |
|
E6 |
52.8084 |
|
E7 |
49.19266 |
|
E8 |
59.12285 |
|
E9 |
64.89869 |
|
E10 |
48.37375 |
Therefore regardless of what Nielsens or anyone else are saying, Flashforward has an audience that is growing at 0.0284x per day.
Not enough you say?
Okay lets compare it to the most downloaded TV series of 2009 which was House.
Hits per day.
|
Episode |
HPD |
|
E1+2 |
60.91882 |
|
E3 |
60.48799 |
|
E4 |
62.06326 |
|
E5 |
62.28052 |
|
E6 |
70.56682 |
|
E7 |
80.82763 |
|
E8 |
80.84548 |
|
E9 |
88.08141 |
|
E10 |
97.45169 |
Or, growth is at the rate of 0.0677x per episode.
So was House always a hit?
Not on the ED2K networks.
Here’s the results for the first ten episodes of house from series 1 (2004).
In other words losing user attention at the rate of -0.0283x
per episode.
But Koltai, House started in 2004.
We didn’t have any near as many people connected via high speed DSL in 2004.
Ahh yes well, now we get back to what I was talking about yesterday.
Hedonic Value.
The last twelve months have been filled with discussion and
concern about the “end days” of the world with doomsayers telling us that
There is little discussion about the Dec 21st being the traditional first day of Winter and the natural end of the annual Spring, Summer Autumn growing calendar.
Educated people are aware of these facts and typically ignore the doomsayers. However there are billions that believe everything that comes out of the little box that we call TV.
“End of the world is coming Mother, it said so on the TV.”
“Well I better go and make the beds and sweep the porch
then……”
Flashforward has involved itself in the doomsday conspiracy meme and mentioned the Haldron Collider (As has another popular show, “The Big Bang Theory”).
Ears perk up. Haldron Collider – End of the World!!!!! (Burn the Witches, where is my necklace of Garlic.)
The most prized hedonic possession is a combination of life, liberty and health.
Of course if you live in
Possibly one has to be a survivor of the Gulag populated salt mines to understand the definition of freedom.
Subconsciously however, humans are aware that life and living has a priority attached.
On the basis that Hedonic enjoyment can only be experienced
by a live human, therefore let us give being alive on
With everything else allocated a value less than 100.
Therefore programs about the highest (human) valued topics are likely, regardless of their acting, special effects or plot, likely to do quite well.
e.g.: the BBC are having some success with their Horizon series:
BBC Horizon - 2009-11-03 Who's Afraid Of A
Big Black Hole.avi 746 MB
and
BBC Horizon - Lost Horizons - The Big Bang.avi 746 MB
(Which is actually receiving more hits than Flashforward.
Stay tuned, Hedonic Valuation of viewing choices is just starting to get interesting.
Qualification
of Data.
TVU is only one from amongst approximately 87 ED2K indexes
References:
http://bunchofnerds.com/2009/10/physics/large-haldron-collider-sabotaged-by-its-own-future-cern-physicist-arrested-charged-w-working-w-al-qaida/
