View Article  Follow the Money or How Hollywood Hides its Billions

It will come as a suprise to many readers, but there are those that still watch, free to air television.

Those that do, tend to watch the programming on TV and use the advertising segments as convenient toilet or coffee breaks.


But those of us that think that advertising is an inconvenient distraction from observing our chosen content stream – don’t quite “Grok” how Mass Media operates.

 

If one counts the number of minutes of advertising per 60 minutes of TV, one quickly realizes that the programming including movies, series, news, documentaries and other entertainment are there in order to capture audiences for the advertisers.

 

Think of it as the invisible taxation of your leisure time.

 

There is no such thing as free entertainment.

 

But all that programming is licensed and the media owners and the movie and CD distributors all have to pay licensing fees, or royalties, to the original owner of the content, which means that the vast majority of the purchase price of the ticket, CD and the taxation of your leisure time through ads goes to the USA.

 

In 1958, the amount of licensing fees being moved out of Australian hands and into American bank accounts was so high for movies alone that the Australian Government redesigned the CPI around those very license fees. They gave films their own unique special category. That year films actually cost  Australian taxpayers 2.6% of the national Balance of Payments. (Page 373 Aus Yearbook 1958).

 

To place this into perspective – In 1958 Australia’s foreign debt represented only 1.6 % of the GDP in comparison. Films were the only product imported or exported from Australia that by the quantity of money involved, deserved their very own special category by name. Everyhting else was labelled Agriculture or Machinery or dry Goods.


These days the entire industry does it slightly differently. Last year Foxtel Licensing fees were $645 million dollars and the proceeds of virtually every movie ticket sold and every digital copy of music sold went straight into overseas bank accounts – outside of Australia’s economy and ironically also largly invisible to the USA economy.

 

 

Financial abuses have been around for as long as there have been finances to abuse. Money laundering and tax evasion are often viewed as complicated boring matters hinging on the minutiae of tax codes and regulatory laws. But that image masks a destructive often bloody reality. Drug cartels arms traffickers terrorist groups and common criminal organizations use banks to launder their dirty money making it appear as the product of legitimate business. Tax evaders structure transactions to hide their wealth from legitimate authorities weakening national tax bases. Corrupt government officials exploit banks to facilitate their own misdeeds breeding a lawless business culture and undermining public confidence in national financial systems. And the underregulated banking systems that facilitate these abuses have sparked financial meltdowns around the world.

Great paragraph, but I didn’t write it.  It was written not last week, but in 2001by William F. Wechsler In July/August 2001 in an article entitled, “Secrets and Lies”.

His article went on to say:

The United States and many of its economic allies have long understood these threats and know that "following the money" can unearth big vulnerabilities in criminal syndicates. Over the years

their governments -- remembering that Al Capone was put behind bars for tax evasion rather than murder -- developed legal and regulatory regimes to help detect and deter financial abuses. Banks and other financial-service providers were regulated and supervised. Money laundering and tax evasion were criminalized banks were required to identify and report suspicious transactions

company-incorporation and trust-formation laws were passed to encourage transparency

and law enforcement agencies developed specialized investigative skills.

 

What does this have to do with Advertising, Television or Movies?

 

Lets start with Google who came under pressure recently for their corporate taxation structuring.

"Well well well, what do we have here?"

OK - Let's see if Hollywood fair any better? For a moment, lets review Hollywood Accounting and some if its example pushback casestudies.

 

You my dear reader will no doubt say, “So what! That’s just normal large company business practice. But what do you call it when Government gets in the act to aid the industry.

 

Lets review some US Government documents…..

 

From The Department of Commerce - THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF THE UNITED STATES Concepts, Data Sources, and Estimating Procedures, May 1990  Table I-3.—BEA Balance of Payments Surveys—Continued (Page 13)

 

Survey title and number

(Annual Survey of Royalties, License Fees, and Other Receipts and Payments for Intangible Rights Between U.S. and Unaffiliated Foreign Persons (BE-93).

Types of information

Sale and purchase of rights relating to industrial processes and products; books, records, audio tapes; trademarks; motion picture and TV tapes; broadcast and recording of live performances and events; business format franchising; and other intangibles.


In 2005, the BEA decided to cancel this survey http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2005/05-8976.htm

 

Because

The Department is proposing to remove the reporting requirements 
for these five annual surveys because the information collected is now 
being collected on four separate quarterly surveys. Specifically, ……the 
BE-25, Quarterly Survey of Transactions Between U.S. and Unaffiliated
Foreign Persons in Selected Services and in Intangible Assets, replaces
the BE-47 and BE-93 surveys; ……………….
BEA began collecting data on these quarterly surveys in 2004.

 

Because….

Paperwork Reduction Act
    The surveys that would be discontinued by this rule have been 
approved by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under the 
Paperwork Reduction Act under the following OMB control numbers: 0608-
0013 (BE-36 survey), 0608-0015 (BE-47 survey), 0608-0016 (BE-48 
survey), 0608-0017 (BE-93 survey), and 0608-0063 (BE-82 survey). OMB 
approved the quarterly surveys under the following OMB control numbers: 
0608-0068 (BE-9 survey); 0608-0067 (BE-25 survey); 0608-0066 (BE-45 
survey); and 0608-0065 (BE-85 survey).
List of Subjects in 15 CFR Part 801
    International transactions, Economic statistics, Foreign trade, 
Penalties, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements.
    Dated: March 30, 2005.
Rosemary D. Marcuss,
Acting Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
 
I would have thought that requiring companies to file quarterly reports would increase the paperwork and not decrease it.

 

An example of a licensing organisation, existing solely to accept foreign movie licence fees.(Without the Stichting entities displayed).


Source: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/scb/page/10642/2008/download/10642.pdf

 

And from the official BE-25 FAQ (http://www.bea.gov/international/pdf/be25faq.pdf)

15) We purchased services from a German company, but we sent the payments to a Swiss bank. How should we report this transaction?

Since your transaction was with a German entity, you should report this as a transaction with Germany. Where the money actually goes is irrelevant, even if you were to send your payments to a bank in the U.S. as a matter of convenience.

16) We provide services to a U.S. affiliate of a German company. Is this transaction applicable to the BE-25?

No. Your transaction is with a U.S. affiliate of that German company. This would be considered a domestic transaction and therefore not applicable to the BE-25.

27) My company purchased accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services from three countries: $2 million from Norway, $1 million from the United Kingdom, and $800 thousand from Venezuela (totaling $3.8 million). How should I report the data?

You have a few options. You could report this data on Schedule B under transaction code 1, accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping, and list the country detail. Because the total purchases of this particular type of service totaled less than $4 million, you have a second option of reporting this data on Schedule B under transaction code 1, accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services, without the country detail and reporting the total purchases of accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services on line

32. Finally, you have the option of not reporting these transactions.

 

In other words – if a service “affiliate” company has lots of “collection” overheads – e.g.: royalty payments – then the small amounts under 4 million – do not need to be reported. An interesting option if the service company has 200 shareholders due 3.9% royalty on every 100 million dollars of revenue from license fees.


We are dumbfounded.

And of course, not one penny of which was payable in taxation by American (or American Affiliate Corporations (Stichting)) corporations to the Australian government.

Government used to be about governing for the benefit of the taxpayers, the constituents, the voters.

The Australian government used to balance the books by the simple mechanism of the purchase or sale of gold.

 

Australia is a gold rich country – and in times of shortage we were still capable of balancing our international accounts by funding additional mining exploration and extraction of the precious mineral.

 

But then the government was hoodwinked in the seventies into accepting an alternative to the gold standard. And the balance of payments has been getting worse ever since.


Just review the folowing comparison between US Dollar bonds and Gold. An interesting story.


 

Now, on the back of the greenback – our future is no longer our own to determine. Every point the greenback nosedives increases the cost of our standard of living - Unless we stop using US Dollars to settle our overseas trade accounts..

 

The United States is bankrupt. Everyone in the world knows it, except a couple of policy advisors in Canberra. Consequently, to keep up with the Joneses (the USA) - the government has no choice but to tax every part of our lifestyle.

 

Interestingly enough – there doesn’t yet appear to be a way of actively taxing P2P.

That means that every time a file is downloaded via P2P – no money leaves Australia, making our economy stronger.

 

Yes – I know that you, my disbelieving reader, will immediately retort – “Hah! What about GST on DSL connections” and my response will be – that you are quite correct – DSL which is taxed, does enable one form of P2P.

(And I blogged about this the other day...... http://www.perceptric.com/blog/_archives/2009/5/29/4203779.html)

 

But at least that GST is payable to the Australian Government and not an offshore entity that routes the payment through Stichtings in Austria and the Netherlands designed to ensure that licensing revenue isn’t taxed by Uncle Sam.

http://www.sec.gov/divisions/corpfin/cf-noaction/stichting050704.htm

 

What You Can Do....

What can you my dear reader do to right this travesty of justice resulting in the legal quagmire imbalance that we have at the moment with ACTA and various other attempts of legislation by litigation instigated by the law-breaking Hollywood industry ? (Or maybe it's not law-breaking if the US Administration are in on it. After all, the Government is never wrong, it's the Government.)

 

Well if you are a P2P user and insist on downloading files illegally, then could I at least appeal to your patriotic side.  (Don’t download any Australian content - Australian artists are one of us – they need to eat. If you download their music and movies, then they’ll be on the dole and your taxes will be paying for it. – Besides Australian film and music producers don’t use Hollywood Accounting and they all pay their taxes and artists royalties.)

 

Be a Patriotic Australian, do your bit for the economy, download an American product; (movie or music track) makes no difference.

After all, how can you be breaking the law if the Studios that created the content in the first place are hiding their income from their Government.

If the movie didnt break even, then you cant be damaging it.

 

Their argument is what’s ours is ours and what’s yours is ours also – but no, we don’t pay tax and no we don’t pay dividends – but yes we will sue you because that adds to our personal bottom line and doesn’t get added to the movie or music revenue – so the artists never see it.

View Article  Buying Babies, or Sheep with an IQ

At most Universities in Australia today, when one looks around the cafeteria, study halls or lecture rooms, one notices a predominance of Chinese faces peering back intently.

 

Australia is a multicultural society so this is good. We are merging through our education system with our largest trading partner.

 

But does the average Australian understand what the Chinese contingent represent.  To get here the competition in China is tremendous. The top 1% of the country’s students vie for an overseas scholarship and every year 850,000 eager young students go forth to learn the ways of the West.

 

It is a great honour to be chosen and the chosen may select which country and what area of study they wish to apply themselves too.

 

The pressure to excel, once enrolled in our academic infrastructure is high and Chinese students often lead the way with honours in both pre and post graduate studies.

 

This entire system of sociological engineering has been designed by the Chinese Government, not to keep our universities full of paying (non-hex) students but to give China a long term intellectual advantage on a global basis.

 

Social engineering can be likened to sheep farming, we’ve written about sheep farming before.

Shepherds like their flock well fed and calm.

The better fed the flock are, the more fleece can be removed.

 

The more fleece that is removed, the better fed the shepherd is.

 

It’s the cycle of Life, Business and Government.

 

It’s a reasonably well known fact that if your flock regeneration rate (birth rate) falls below 2.1% the financial viability of the flock is called into question.

It may be that the pure Merino Flock needs some Romney stock to beef up the numbers.

 

But of course, a good sheep farmer will know that mixing Romney with Merino produces coarse unmanageable wool that is not so popular with the wool buyers. In fact, it would appear that the more one indiscriminately mixes the various breeding stock, the more unknown problems are introduced into the final quantities of mutton and wool.

 

Therefore the economic argument is – either maintain the purity of the flock and suffer eventual extinction, or, import new breeding stock to increase numbers and reproduction.

 

This was the problem in Australia during WWII, and again in the eighties.

 

Zero Population growth.

 

So the Government opened the doors to immigration. After all, a tax payer is a tax payer.

Unfortunately, PhD’s were given Taxi driver jobs, qualified Doctors became nurses and generally, the immigrants were treated as if they were all blue collar labour.

 

Is that what Australia needs to move ahead economicaly? More blue collar labourers? Or do we need high IQ educated people of all nationalities to create a utopian multi-cultural society that will gain widespread acceptance in a global market looking for kindred spirits to trade with.

 

But then the Government in it’s wisdom decided to start paying for babies.

 

The question we have to ask ourselves is; "Who does the idea of being paid for babies appeal too"?


Is it the same young people that don't realise that $4,000 dollars is only a very small part of the $280,000 needed to rear a child?

 

In the UK, the “have five babies before you’re thirty will put you on easy street”, is an established societal norm in certain parts of the country.

The parts of the country, that seem to turn out the lowest numbers of “O” and “A” levels and subsequent degrees.

 

In Australia we are close to encouraging the same sociological mistake created in the UK.

 

The poorer suburbs churning out the next generation, with no infrastructure assured to be in place to mould the next generation into high output individuals.

 

Actually, whilst I don’t necessarily agree with the concept of paying for babies in preference to immigration; I do consider that if we have to pay for them, let’s try to do so with an outcome in mind.

 

On that basis, I suggest a sliding scale, for the quality of the offspring based on the IQ of the father (blue) and the mother (pink)

 

IQ

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

100

$1,000

1,150

1,300

1,450

1,600

1,750

1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

105

1,150

$1,300

1,450

1,600

1,750

1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

110

1,300

1,450

$1,600

1,750

1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

115

1,450

1,600

1,750

$1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

120

1,600

1,750

1,900

2,050

$2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,100

125

1,750

1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

$2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,100

3,250

130

1,900

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

$3,000

3,150

3,300

3,450

3,600

135

2,050

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

3,150

$3,500

3,650

3,800

3,950

140

2,200

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,300

3,650

$4,500

4,650

4,800

145

2,350

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,100

3,450

3,800

4,650

$5,500

5,650

150

2,500

2,650

2,800

2,950

3,100

3,250

3,600

3,950

4,800

5,650

 $ 10,000

 

Combined with acceptances at Australians leading academic institutions for the offspring in the green zone from Kindy – through Uni.

 

We should take a leaf out of the Chinese education system and take the 1% of the best of the best and give them exactly the same thing that the Chinese Government has given their brightest young stars. The education that they want, anywhere in the world.

 

If we implemented  a system of social population engineering, we would become not just the lucky country, but the clever one as well.

 

From the Tongue in cheek department – but again, only just.

View Article  In Australia P2P is Big Business

We have all heard the following mantra.....

 

Don’t download movies using P2P.

Om Mani Padme Hum.....

Downloading is a crime

Om Mani Padme Hum.....

Stealing movies is a crime

Om Mani Padme Hum.......

Stealing Music is a crime

omph........

 

But is it? Or do P2P activities in Australia represent 5% of the country’s GDP.

 

Lets first see where you, our reader fits into the picture..

 

Are you an Ipod owner?

Do you have an MP3 player?

Do you have a computer?

Are you connected to the Internet?

Do you have a smartphone with x GB storage for movies and music?

Do you have a CD-burner in your computer?

Is your phone connected to the Internet?

 

If you answered yes to more than three of the above, then you have probably at some time or other downloaded copyrighted content that you have not paid for and/or copied that content ontop a device, a CD-ROM, DVD or Ipod illegally, making you by default,


A) A Pirate

B) A Criminal


But we here at Perceptric, being not quite so judgemental of your actions actually think that congratulations are in order.


You are now (by your own admission) officially part of the 57% of Australians that utilize 87% of the internet infrastructure and bandwidth in this country to download music, movies and other items without paying for it.

 

So if 57% of Australians download files, how does that help the economy?

 

Well, let’s look at it another way.

 

Population:

22,000,000

 

 

Per Unit

% pr/yr

Number of

Total $

Infrastructure

A

98,000,000,000

0.21%

98,000,000,000

20,580,000,000

Maintenance

B

209,860,000

1

209,860,000

209,860,000

Wages/Paye

C

5,000,000,000

1

5,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

Computer

D

          1,000.00

33%

11000000

3,630,000,000

Laptop

E

          1,500.00

66%

4400000

4,356,000,000

Router

F

                69.00

33%

3300000

75,141,000

Wifi

G

             180.00

33%

3300000

196,020,000

Sat Dish

H

             420.00

33%

110000

15,246,000

Modem

I

                    90.00

20%

11880000

213,840,000

Cellphone

J

            550.00

66%

22,000,000

7,986,000,000

Retail Use Plan Home

K

                39.95

100%

5,500,000

2,636,700,000

Retail Phone Data Use

L

                18.00

24%

9680000

501,811,200

Wholesale Billing

M

                12.00

100%

  5,500,000

792,000,000

 

45,400,618,200

GST

(GST not calculated on "A" and "B")

2,061,261,820

Total Value of P2P

(At 80% of Network and CPE value)

$37,969,504,016

 

In other words, in Australia P2P is worth more than the entire combined revenue base of the member companies of the various industry bodies trying to stop P2P. (i.e.: EMI, Warner, MGM, Sony)

Now multiple those figures by the population of the rest of the world and you have an industry globally that adds up to

$10,355,319,277,091. .
Putting it simply, worldwide, P2P is worth three times the value of the Global Financial Crisis - but in a good way. That means that technology that started because of the ubiquity of content has now outstripped the value of that content, and replaced it with something far more valuable.

The sound of Government cash registers ringing.

Basically, taxable revenue - yes I did say TAXABLE, dollars that your government obtains revenue from - unlike Movies and Music and overseas made TV shows.

 

Notes:

Assumptions.

The cost of the telecommunications infrastructure in Australia is “A”

The cost of maintaining that infrastructure is “B”

That infrastructure generates “C” in wages, PAYE tax and individual taxation.

 

To utilize that infrastructure you require termination CPE (Customer Premises Equipment).

CPE includes, Telephone handsets, Modems (dial-up/ADSL), Nat routers, satellite dishes, WiFi devices. Items “F” through “I”

 

If fifty percent of Australians have a computer – let’s call that “D”

Most computers are cycled every thirty six months. Therefore Annual replacement of “D” is valued at $330.00 on the basis that the purchase price is $1000.00

 

We assume 20% of Australians have a laptop. “E”

 

If 100% percent of Australians have a mobile Phone – let’s call that “J”


If 5.5 million homes of 7.2 million are connected to the internet, that generates a monthly subscriber value of “F” (For this exercise, we assume a monthly total of $39.95 per sub.)  “K”

 

44% of Mobile Phones have data plans and approximately 24% of those phones utilize their internet connection.

The average mobile phone data consumption is therefore worth approx. $18.00 per month. “L”

 

All services are billed between the wholesale carrier and the retail Service Provider. “M”

 

 

Sources: Telstra, ACMA, ABS, Various industry sales results.

 

View Article  Philip K Dick - Your Vision Is Here Now...
Things are changing - fast!

And governments are starting to understand what the music industry is still struggling to come to terms with, having been exposed to P2P: They can not control the pace of change. And they are starting to get scared. So they should do.

This then is the digital paradox.

On one hand you have the very real issue that swine flu, apparently a global pandemic, probably was borne in a global agribusiness laboratory, and escaped. Virologists don't know how much it will mutate, but they believe that it will take two years to run its course. In Australia with the onset of winter, we get to be the guinea pigs for the northern hemisphere.

On the other hand you have the Ray Kurzweill university - The Singularity University which is opening in the next four weeks and is funded by Google. The mission is to "assemble, educate and inspire a cadre of leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies and apply, focus and guide these tools to address humanity's grand challenges."

We are now at a point where it is probably that our species will split into two kinds of beings with two kinds of cultures: the transhumans, who are part human and part digital machine (memories of Battlestar Gallactica) and those who are totally human.

I tend to think that there may be a third thread that will also emerge which will be the totally silicon beings that exist only in virtual reality. This may be an alternative evolutionary path for transhumans...

These now are not possibilities. They are probabilities, which are being preceded by the advent of the global brain.

I agree with one thing from the article linked to above - the probability is that the various kinds of beings that emerge will not easily co-exist. War will be an inevitability. Ironically, my sense is that the transhumans will not be in a race for water or clean air or food. They will need electricity.

Perhaps while the human races fight for those "organic" resources, the androids will come in and take all the power stations...?

Hmmm... Something to ponder.
Keywords: ,
View Article  TV Is Dead
I am on a panel talking (briefly) about the future of TV this coming Saturday. It is at the Paddington Town Hall from 12 noon.

I am on the side that is arguing for the proposition that TV is Dead.

It is free, so if you want to come along and either cheer or hurl rotten tomatoes feel free to come along.

The big question is actually, "What screen do I want to consume content on?" And the answer is "all of them".

Are broadcasters going to survive the change? Some will and some won't.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that things are in flux at the moment. If it isn't the global financial crisis, its swine flu. And by the way, isn't it a little strange that our attention is being so massively distracted from the collapsing financial system at the moment with a pandemic that is so dangerous that our state government does virtually nothing to interdict it when a cruise ship arrives in port with carriers of the bug? Think about it...

And then read this article: It talks about the changing community feeling in the US. This is what has the governments of the world worried. Here is an excerpt:

Emergency supply retailers and military surplus stores nationwide have seen business boom in the past few months as an increasing number of Americans spooked by the economy rush to stock up on gear that was once the domain of hardcore survivalists.

These people snapping up everything from water purification tablets to thermal blankets shatter the survivalist stereotype: they are mostly urban professionals with mortgages, SUVs, solid jobs and a twinge of embarrassment about their newfound hobby.

From teachers to real estate agents, these budding emergency gurus say the dismal economy has made them prepare for financial collapse as if it were an oncoming Category 5 hurricane. They worry about rampant inflation, runs on banks, bare grocery shelves and widespread power failures that could make taps run dry.




Keywords:
View Article  Pirates And Terrorism
So I was watching a Battleship Gallactica episode earlier this evening, and for some reason fast forwarded to the end of the dvd (a legal one by the way, borrowed from a friend who loves the writing of Gallactica). And there at the end of the dvd was an anti-piracy ad....

And as I watched it and it got to the bit where the voice over goes, "and piracy funds terrorism... and takes away jobs... and..." I thought to myself, "my God this is the same old same old that we got from Cheney and Bush: "They hate us and want to take away our freedoms" and "Saddam has weapons of mass destruction"....

The point is this: Some people have said for generations that if you repeat a lie long enough it becomes perceived as the truth. That drove US policy for eight long years. And then the people in the US decided that they needed to make a change.

When you sell dvd's and include an ad that apes that eight year long, totally wrong way of thinking, you are stuck with the ad being in the public's hands. And every time they see it, your credibility is blown more.

I have no doubt that somewhere there are terrorists that benefit from the sales of illegal dvd's. But then again banks facilitate the activities of terrorists too by enabling funds to be moved from one account to another. And a whole lot of other professions too...

It would be nice if there could be a sense of proportion on the part of the content owners when they make ads. As I blogged recently, what would be better is if the ad was a positive one that said, "Thanks for buying a legit product, guys. We appreciate it!"

Or even better, it would be nice if they ran a competition for consumers to come up with a slogan to combat piracy. And gave away a million bucks to the winner. And made it a condition of entry that you have to insert a special code that you get with a legit dvd.

Think out of the box, people. This is the great time of change. And if the content companies don't show the ability to change the way they think, they will definitely go the way of the dinosaur...
Keywords: ,
View Article  The Rising Tide Of Government Rhetoric
Here are some more thoughts on something I blogged earlier:

I don't know if you have noticed, but I certainly have.

Over the last week or so there has been a rising tide of government rhetoric that is tantamount to the Howard message, "We are alert, but not alarmed".

I am not sure what sources of information are available to the top bureaucrats - and politicians - but I can hazard a guess.... Probably from organizations that have multiple letter acronyms as names - just like NATO (but different!).

Here is one of the stories that are out there at present:

The startling estimate by top virologist Professor John Oxford comes as leading scientists are warning that the agency's announcements on the spread of the disease are "meaningless" and hiding its true extent. And it tallies with official estimates made in the United States.

Here is another:

Emergency supply retailers and military surplus stores nationwide have seen business boom in the past few months as an increasing number of Americans spooked by the economy rush to stock up on gear that was once the domain of hardcore survivalists.

These people snapping up everything from water purification tablets to thermal blankets shatter the survivalist stereotype: they are mostly urban professionals with mortgages, SUVs, solid jobs and a twinge of embarrassment about their newfound hobby.



Over the last couple of days the continuing noise relating to the swine flu epidemic is one major one... I would venture to think that the government is starting to look at computer models of how pandemics spread and death toll numbers.

The path of a pandemic appears, from what I have read to date, to take about two years to run itself out. That is two whole flu seasons in each hemisphere. We, in the south, are going to get the first impact this winter. The northern hemisphere is not expected to get the brunt of swine flu until the end of this year.

But the way that it is being spun by the media with the stories at or near the top of the news, together with comforting statements from the minister, leads me to believe that there is a very real concern that things are not looking too good. Not right now, but soon.... No one is talking about computer models of the way that pandemics roll out, but bear in mind that we now have ships arriving in Sydney carrying passengers that have tested positive where the ships have not stopped at a port where there is any known swine flue occurrence.

So in that event, where did it come from?

This is the part that I would think is starting to scare some of the people in Canberra.

And the modeling that would be the scariest is what happens when the people in charge of food and fuel transportation show symptoms and need quarantine? That is when the public starts to get it, because the supermarket shelves are somewhat bare for a day or so. When that happens and when the rumours start to fly there will be a run on food....

This is something that is set to happen possibly this winter, but almost certainly during the next 24 months. Now I know that some people will think that I am being alarmist, and that is fair enough. I just happen to think that whereas in prior crises the politicians have had a certain level of confidence that they project, in this case I see Mssrs Rudd, Swan, Roxon and others, looking like they have some really big problems to deal with.... Interesting to see how they play it...
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View Article  Media Content vs other US exports
Thanks, Chris, for the introduction!

As reader well know, there's a lot of noise in the P2P scene at present, especially following the recent Pirate Bay case in Sweden.

http://www.p2pnet.net/story/20434
http://google.com/trends?q=pirate+bay
http://thepiratebay.org/blog.php

The legal muscle is coming from the US, which is the largest producer of media content in the world. So how does this sector compare with other US export sectors?

I whacked together this graph, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:



That's a lot of money leaving the US every year. I couldn't easily find a break down of this data into various sectors, but I did find this quote by Sheldon Pressor, Senior Vice President of Warner Brothers:

"The entertainment industries are one of the U.S. economy’s greatest assets. Based on Department of Commerce statistics, the copyright industries represent more than 6% of the nation’s GDP. We bring in more international revenues from exports than aircraft, agriculture, auto parts.  We also are creating new jobs at three times the rate of the rest of the economy.  The movie industry alone has a surplus balance of trade with every single country in the world that exhibits our films.  No other American enterprise can make that statement."

You would expect him to be in the know, and presenting accurate figures to Congress regarding recommendations for a Free Trade Agreement.

So it is quite clear that the entertainment industry, and probably the content industry in more broad terms (including news, and media in general), is of great interest and importance to the US economy.

There's also quite a bit of noise in Australia at present regarding the government's plans to censor the internet. Could these all be related?

Here's another interesting quote, from Elizabeth Frazee, Entertainment Industry Coallition (EIC).

"It will ensure that adequate legal incentives are in place to encourage cooperation by Internet Service Providers in dealing with online piracy."

So will it be that if the ISPs of Australia don't stand up and play-ball with the EIC, then the Australian government will be forced to legislate the EIC's desires because of the Free Trade Agreement that is in place?

And who is the EIC, by the way? The usual suspects:

"Our members include BMG Music; The Directors Guild of America (DGA); EMI Recorded Music; the Entertainment Software Association (ESA); The International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, Moving Picture Technicians,  Artists and Allied Crafts of the United States, Its Territories and Canada (IATSE); Independent Film and Television Alliance (IFTA); Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA); National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO); New Line Cinema; the News Corporation Limited; Paramount Pictures; Producers Guild of America (PGA); Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA); Sony Music Entertainment Inc.; Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc.; Television Association of Programmers (TAP) Latin America; Time Warner;  Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation; Universal Music Group; Viacom; Universal Studios; the Walt Disney Company; Warner Bros.;  Warner Music Group; and The Writers Guild of America, west (WGAw)."

I'm not sure that I agree in losing civil liberties for the sake of these content producing companies’ failure to provide a business model that delivers via the Internet.

View Article  Change Acceleration
We are surrounded by change and it is accelerating.

The media continues to beat the global economic crisis to death and bit by bit, we are all becoming inured to the concept that things are in a terrible state. The problem is that when you hear people trying to lift our spirits by being optimistic, saying that the market has rallied, we tend to either think that some manipulative entity is trying to manipulate our thinking. When we see that the market has fallen, we tend to think that it is going the way it is most likely to go. We think in this way because we have drunk the kool aid and come to the conclusion that things are turning to crap everywhere.

The truth is quite different.

Let me give you some thoughts on what is actually taking place. Some of it is bad, granted, but there is also a whole lot of good out there.

The bad part is that some of the banks have gone bad, and they are taking governments with them too. And ultimately we are all going to have to pay for having either elected (a) corrupt politicians who are on the take or manipulated by big business or other forces (b) politicians who don't get what is happening because they don't read anything other than the mainstream media (c) politicians who who are both. These include all the local council elected officials in Australia who invested a chunk of the local ratepayers' funds into so-called toxic investments.

Let's get past those and just take for granted that we are all going to end up paying for electing those people with higher rates, taxes, etc. Or we are going to find that all our local services deteriorate at an even faster rate than they do normally.

So that is a given. Let's get past it.

What is happening now is that the next generation of everything is in the process of coming into being. What is this "everything"?

This is the stuff that researchers in universities and in private research labs all over the world have been working on for the last who-knows-how-long.

We do not need new power stations. We have a plentiful supply of energy. What we need is to be able to manage what we have better. As new electric cars come on line - yes, it will mean that General Motors and Ford and Chrysler and others will essentially be gone. They missed the boat and didn't change to meet the way that the market was changing. But electric cars will provide the management of a new smarter grid. So will houses that utilize solar panels along with fuel cells to be self sufficient in their electricity needs. So power will not be our problem. The problem will be getting local and state and federal laws to be changed fast enough to both accommodate the changes in technology that are about to hit the market (over the next 3-5 years) and to make it financially beneficial for home owners to retrofit the new technologies.

The big issue is that people can only afford significant levels of capital expenditure once every 5-10 years. Once they make a decision, they are locked in by leases and hire purchase agreements for that kind of time line. It had better be the right decision.

Same thing goes for the swine flu. I see the news every night and what I see is our government exerting the maximum level of damage control that it can do without moving to generate a full out panic.

I see this flu as an opportunity for many. It is a pandemic after all. So the probability is that one out of every three people is going to catch the virus regardless of what we do. If you catch it early, the likelihood is that you will not die, as it appears from all reports to be relatively benign at this stage. So you will likely survive and build up a lot of new antibodies that will protect you as the bug mutates and becomes stronger. Once it mutates then all of us that don't catch it the first time round are going to be in trouble. Because then it will kill.

I understand that one biologist at the ANU has recently postulated that the swine flu very possibly came out of an industrial (and therefore private) laboratory as a result of experimentation into finding cures for various ailments that pigs get when they are farmed industrially - i.e in such poor conditions that they need to be constantly medicated.

What is the opportunity from this? Time to wake up and understand that the current distribution system of food is broken. When you have everything centrally farmed in mono-culture farms, transported to central warehousing facilities and then distributed to the edge, what you have is a triumph of supply chain management, but a disaster in the making. We have to fix that. What we need to do is to start to understand and embrace the total concept of P2P as applied to every aspect of life.

Using P2P for food distribution would be like moving back to the way that our grandparents did things: Grow stuff, share it, barter it, but know where it grew and who grew it and what they used in order to help it grow. If we want food security, and if we want to survive swine flu we have to understand that it is tied up absolutely into food, we need to start acting like we want to survive and thrive. And that means that we need to educate ourselves.

This last issue is why I moved to the country a year and a half ago. I wanted to be self sufficient. You can't do that overnight. You can't just switch on self-sufficiency like a gadget that you buy at Harvey Norman.

If you are one of our readers who is interested in P2P or interested in technology or economics, please think about this for a moment...

How do you live? Do you continue to do things now that you were doing a year ago? Or have you started to make some changes in your life?

Some of the solutions for our continuing progress on this planet are going to come from becoming radically "green". Some are going to come from radically adopting new technologies. The tough decisions are going to be which choices we all make and how we make them.

The first thing to do is to understand that change is not taking place at an orderly rate. We are now in the eye of the hurricane of change. We have a brief moment to take stock of where we are and what we are doing... and why. And then to become more resilient and to influence those around us similarly. Do it.
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View Article  Cricket And Sri Lanka
There was a news item on the TV a couple of nights ago. A new Australian government representative (ambassador, consul?) was appointed to Sri Lanka. He was overseeing the distribution of a shipment of cricket bats to the locals there and was filmed taking a couple of balls and whacking them.

Now I know that the people of Sri Lanka are cricket mad, just like those in India and Pakistan, but given the recent troubles there and the lack of food and water as a result of the civil war, I wondered if someone was trying to rewrite an old adage: Perhaps it should now read "Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Give a man a fishing rod and feed him all his life. Give a man a cricket bat and then he can whack his neighbour over the head and take the other guy's fish..."

Just seemed to me that there are more pressing issues in Sri Lanka than cricket, but then the only cricket I used to go and watch were the village matches at Hatfield House in the UK when my parents used to live near there...
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