View Article  Insights Into The Future
Here are the predictions of the experts on how long, how deep, how painful the recession will be in the US and how soon it will start to turn around... These are the people who not only saw the meltdown coming, but were prepared to stake their reputations on it...

Some examples of what they are saying:

NOURIEL ROUBINI, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor at New York University

WHAT HE SAID: There is going to be a recession next year ... The bursting of the housing bubble -- we have not seen it yet -- is going to lead to broader systemic banking problems. It is going to start with the subprime lenders ... and then it is going to be transmitted to other banks and financial institutions all over the country. -- September 7, 2006, speech to the International Monetary Fund

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: I expect that the recession will be very severe and that it won't be over before the end of 2009. And even though we might technically be out of recession in 2010, annual growth could be just 1.0% to 1.5% for several years if the credit crunch remains severe. I think there is a further 15% to 20% downside risk for global and U.S. stocks, and a further 15% to 20% downside risk for commodity prices. So 2009 will be a year of recession and deflation.

 

PETER SCHIFF, president of Euro Pacific Capital

WHAT HE SAID: This is going to be an enormous credit crunch. The party is over for the United States ... [Subprime] is not a tiny [problem], and it's not just subprime -- it's the entire mortgage market. -- August 18, 2007, Fox News

HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009: The dollar is going to resume its fall, leading to a resurgence in the bull market in commodities. That will pierce the bubble in the bond market, causing interest rates to go up. So we're going to be in a depressionary environment, but with rising prices and rising interest rates. Our economy will be a mess for years and years to come.


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View Article  Why the Filter Won’t Work.


Our intrepid reporter, Tom Koltai, has been following with great interest the recent announcements by The Communications Minister, Senator Conroy about his intentions to filter the Entire Internet for Australian Internet Users. Here is his take on the proposed Internet Filter Legislation: (updated 27th December 2008)

I  have been following with great interest the recent announcements by The Communications Minister, Senator Conroy about his intentions to filter the Entire Internet for Australian Internet Users.

I represented at the Senate Committee Hearings in 1995 that the internet could not be regulated or adequately filtered  (Scroll down to Section 3.24)

Specifically I said :
o       the content of the Internet cannot be regulated because of the 'sheer volume';
o       there are technical difficulties in achieving regulation because: no sooner is information filtered from one source than it becomes available from another site;
o       graphic image format (GIF), such as a photograph or a digital image, is very difficult to automatically scan for offensive content, since to a computer it is a series of bits and bytes;
o       as the Internet grows even more people will want to publish material, making control even harder; and
o       anti-porn software filters on the receiving computer in the home or school work only on text, but then have difficulty coping with the volume. Filtering of multi-media messages, involving animation, video or voice, is impossible. (Evidence, 12.10.95, pp. 137-8).

Now the senator has announced that the filter will also filter P2P.

Unfortunately the P2P methodology is not the exclusive domain of P*dophiles (asterisk required to ensure we don’t get filtered) illegal music or film downloaders.

The internet is a selection of starburst nodes, each node consisting of a cluster of users and an ISP, connected to other starburst nodes.

It started as such in 1979 and still operates the same way. The design is intended so that traffic from one user on Starburst node A can get to either a single or multiple users on starburst node B.

In other words Person to Person (or Peer 2 Peer). The difference with the Internet is that it added two elements to the traditional methodology of delivery: routing ability and packetization.

Metaphorically, if we used Australia Post to send a postcard from A to B and it accidentally became mangled somehow in one of the sorting machines and had a corner torn off it, it is highly unlikely that that the corner with no address details would ever be rejoined with its lost counterpart (the rest of the postcard).
Packetization enables the disassembly of data (pictures, videos, songs, letters) into small delivery packets that are sent over and over again until the user at B says “Got it!” or in Internet Packet parlance “ACK” which is literally derived from “Acknowledged Receipt”.

Routing is all about finding detours when the bridge is washed out. The internet automatically heals itself for small outages and re-routes its packets via network C or D or E.

However, there is a problem, and its very similar to the problem that many in built-up areas encounter every morning during morning ablutions: "where has the water pressure gone?" In other words, when 2 million people all have a shower at 7:00 am the water pressure drops a little.

The internet is the same. The peak load periods are traditionally 9:00 am to 9:30 am, 3:30 pm to 4:30 pm and 8:00 pm to 9:30 pm. At this time there is minimal bandwidth availability (water pressure) because everyone is doing their thing.

The problem started to become severe when video services like YouTube began streaming across the internet. After all, they are very large files and benefit only one person, the viewer. If every person in Australia wanted their own TV channel we would soon run out of channels (most televisions can't handle more than 999 channels).

To solve this problem, companies started writing software that would take advantage of the popularity of the videos being watched by people on the same network segments as you.

These programs utilize the P2P method to offload bandwidth from the network. The easiest analogy I can give is the old “Party Line” telephone system that existed (mainly in regional areas) up until the late 1960’s. A line was shared between several users. If the call was for the Smiths, the phone rang twice, if it was for the Browns, it jangled three times, if for the Jones, 2 short and one long ring. And quite often, Mrs. Smith, Mrs. Brown and Mrs. Jones would all get on the phone together to share their news simultaneously. In this manner gossip was streamlined and delivered instantaneously to everyone.

That’s basically P2P. In your network there are three users watching the same program. If all three were to download the file from YouTube, that would require three separate download streams across the entire internet. If however, all three users were to download a different part of the file and share the parts amongst themselves, then everyone would get the file faster and more economically.

Unfortunately for us, this is the future of the Internet. Why do I say unfortunately ?

Because the Senator is about to Filter the Internet and P2P and almost 50% of P2P content is legitimate content provided through software like Miro, TVU, POPEYE and the UK’s BBC Networks extremely popular I-PLAYER.

Another example of Politicians not really understanding the technology

Tom Koltai – 27th December, 2001

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