All the data received by Facebook in a nifty visualization....

Over the last couple of weeks I have been focusing on getting our vegetable garden happening. Not as simple as you might think.

When you live on the edge of real bush, the benefits are fantastic - lots of butterflies, and birds that of course feed on the butterflies and other bugs; families of echidnas, wallabies, hares... all of which are fabulous, except that as soon as your seeds germinate the wildlife gets to them and game over...

So it became clear that we would need to construct a truly critter-proof enclosure in which to germinate and grow our vegetables.

I did a basic design for this and then talked to Geoff, a friend and neighbour. He then told me that in order to follow my design I would need to upgrade the timber that I was planning to use in order to ensure that the whole structure was sound.... And fortunately Geoff was around to help with the construction.

So over the last couple of weeks I have been excavating holes for the posts, concreting the posts in place, stretching wire around the enclosure, putting in sleepers for the beds (so as to raise them slightly and make picking the produce a bit easier on the back).

Not quite finished yet - still have to put the gate on and complete the bird proofing, but we have now planted out tomatoes and beans, and next week will plant some more seeds. (On that note we are only planting non-hybrid open pollinated seeds).

Here are some pictures of the construction taking place:

The State of New South Wales is nothing short of abominable.

The new Premier is out of his depth (but if you live in Australia you knew that already). Eric Roozendahl, the Minister for Roads a couple of weeks ago, and now the Treasurer (and if Reese goes on sacking ministers at the rate he is going perhaps the two of them will be the last men standing as ministers for everything), has just delivered a budget that is so utterly wrong it just beggars belief.

Without taking it apart piece by piece, let me just cover a few issues.

We know that there is a shortfall in the state's finances. Bob Carr spent up big basically to get re-elected. Morris Iemma dithered and Nathan Reese now has to deal with pay back to his sponsors for getting the big gig.

There are some realities that he needs to consider:

If NSW was in this mess on its own I could understand the powers that be delivering the budget that they just did. But we are in a flat world and we are not decoupled from the nation or from the rest of the world.

Demand for commodities are down and since we are a country that produces commodities without too much value being added, regardless of price we are going to see companies laying off workers, reducing costs, and battening down the hatches for the coming storm.

As the financial markets continue to unwind companies in that sector are going to lay off people too. All that knocks a hole in the demand for real estate. And since the stamp duties on property transfer are a big chunk of the revenue for the state, clearly things are going to get a little rocky.

So what the state needs is stimulus in every area that will help compensate.

We may not be able to afford to build new rail connections and keep our AAA rating, but think of what could be done... We could introduce a totally free service for commuters on buses and trains. That would be a much better way to get cars off the road than to introduce a congestion tax. People would have to register for free travel passes by demonstrating that they live in one place and work in another and would only be permitted to travel from A to B. That immediately puts pressure on the travel infrastructure, granted. But it has a tremendous positive effect in terms of the reduction of green house gasses from private transport. Sell the carbon emissions saved to cover the cost of the lost revenue from the tickets issued for free. It also means that the fiasco of ticket machines can be forgotten, and instead of having people collecting tickets, put them to work on the trains to ensure that there is a reduction in crime.

Oh and one other important thing: Since the ministers in the government want everyone in the state to reduce their expectations of service from the government, then let the ministers take a salary cut... It would be a great example of what they expect from everyone else...

The power industry and the sale or non-sale, which is a key part of the problem... Introduce significant benefits for people to install solar. Not the half baked proposal that is in place at the moment - but a serious levy on power exported into the grid. Make it possible for ordinary people to make back the cost of the capital investment to install solar within two years. That will really boost the solar industry and will reduce the need to update the power industry. Then increase the costs of power to everyone, industry included, so that the incentive to install solar is even stronger!

This is all about needing to look at the unconventional wisdoms.

At the moment you can pretty much guarantee that everything that the current state government is proposing and unfortunately is doing, is 180 degrees wrong. So look at the opposite and a way to monetize it and forget about the triple A ratings...

I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere soon after January 21st Obama announces something like this:

1. The American Green Energy Challenge - as big as the idea of putting a man on the moon - Within four years America needs to have developed a renewable electricity technology that will be able to supply 75% of America's current needs within 10 years. Key to this will be that it must also solve the potential problem of utilising the existing retail infrastructure for recharging so as to enable gas station owners and energy companies to remain in business. The investment will be 100 Billion plus.
2. The US car industry will be part nationalised, if not in name then by deed. Chrysler, Ford, GM will all be owned 75% by the government through a series of bonds that are issued the purpose of which will be to develop American electrical technology that will be utilized in all US cars and will be exportable to the world. Price of the investment in the auto industry $200 Billion.
3. The government will write mortgages of up to $350k for any household is earning less than $200k. Keep the workers happy!

I reckon that there will be a total green energy policy that will involve universities, businesses, the energy industry and they will all be on board.... He has until Jan 21st to put it all together. And I reckon that his team will have been on this for 90-180 days already. This is about making the first 100 days absolutely full of big spending, big employment stuff!

Update:

Obama and Biden have already announced the following at the Change.gov blog:

Invest in the Manufacturing Sector and Create 5 Million New Green Jobs

• Invest in our Next Generation Innovators and Job Creators: Obama and Biden will create an Advanced Manufacturing Fund to identify and invest in the most compelling advanced manufacturing strategies. The Fund will have a peer-review selection and award process based on the Michigan 21st Century Jobs Fund, a state-level initiative that has awarded over $125 million to Michigan businesses with the most innovative proposals to create new products and new jobs in the state.
• Double Funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership: The Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) works with manufacturers across the country to improve efficiency, implement new technology and strengthen company growth. This highly-successful program has engaged in more than 350,000 projects across the country and in 2006 alone, helped create and protect over 50,000 jobs. But despite this success, funding for MEP has been slashed by the Bush administration. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will double funding for the MEP so its training centers can continue to bolster the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers.
• Invest In A Clean Energy Economy And Create 5 Million New Green Jobs: Obama and Biden will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial scale renewable energy, invest in low emissions coal plants, and begin transition to a new digital electricity grid. The plan will also invest in America's highly-skilled manufacturing workforce and manufacturing centers to ensure that American workers have the skills and tools they need to pioneer the first wave of green technologies that will be in high demand throughout the world.
• Create New Job Training Programs for Clean Technologies: The Obama-Biden plan will increase funding for federal workforce training programs and direct these programs to incorporate green technologies training, such as advanced manufacturing and weatherization training, into their efforts to help Americans find and retain stable, high-paying jobs. Obama and Biden will also create an energy-focused youth jobs program to invest in disconnected and disadvantaged youth.
• Boost the Renewable Energy Sector and Create New Jobs: The Obama-Biden plan will create new federal policies, and expand existing ones, that have been proven to create new American jobs. Obama and Biden will create a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that will require 25 percent of American electricity be derived from renewable sources by 2025, which has the potential to create hundreds of thousands of new jobs on its own. Obama and Biden will also extend the Production Tax Credit, a credit used successfully by American farmers and investors to increase renewable energy production and create new local jobs.

Update Nov 9th

It may already be too late for GM. According to Bloomberg the company is fast running out of operating cash.

Its the thin end of the wedge... The government is intending to destroy the internet by filtering everything - all in the name of good, of course: Stop kiddie porn etc. Of course this is not really what it is about, people. This is about taking away the wild west out of the web, and controlling all of us....

Don't let it happen. Find out what you can do by visiting the EFF web site, No Clean Feed.

My wife just came across an old newspaper cutting - an article from The Sydney Morning Herald, with some future predictions from technology entrepreneurs... I was among them.

This is what the article attributes to me (interesting from 8 years into the future to see what punditry I was up to then!):

A new report on Internet traffic has been released.

Here is something interesting on P2P traffic:

Gary North
 

October 24, 2008

I have never seen anything like this. The adjusted monetary base over the last eight weeks has risen at 341% per annum. The increase in the monetary base is $300 billion

This indicates panic at the Federal Reserve. The financial system is coming unglued.

The monetary base is high-powered money. For every dollar injected here, the money supply can rise by at least 10 to one. A 10% reserve requirement is imposed on large urban banks, i.e., a 10-to-1 multiplication factor. This is the fractional reserve banking process. This is from the Federal Reserve's site.

The recession is pushing down the price of commodities. So far, the new money has gone to banks and financial institutions. They are not lending to businesses. They regard businesses as too risky. This is getting a lot of press.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=amZ3uCIUB8GQhttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/17/will-banks-lend

These articles never mention the obvious: the banks can lend at any time. They make no money if they don't. They can buy Treasury debt. Central banks do. So can commercial banks. This explains why Treasury rates have not increased, despite the increase in the Federal debt.

The Federal government spends every dime it borrows. This money will flow into the economy by way of Washington. This money will not be lent to private businesses. It will not re-capitalize the country. How can it? It is not saved capital. It is fiat money.

If the banks are not lending at all, the monetary base sits there, ready to be used by the banks. At the first sign of economic recovery, they will start making loans. The money multiplication process will take over.

If this expansion of the monetary base does not stop, it will create mass inflation when the banks begin to lend (assuming they aren't lending to the government now).

To stop it later, the FED can sell assets to shrink the monetary base. Which assets? Toxic waste loans? Who is going to buy them? Who wants toxic waste assets in the any stage of the recovery? It can sell Treasury debt, but only until it runs out. It has a little over $450 billion remaining.

http://www.cumber.com/home/Factors.pdf

If the banks will not lend at all, then the FED is "pushing on a string." But why won't they lend? They are legally allowed to. Why borrow in the federal funds market if you have legal reserves? Yet banks are borrowing in this market. They borrow because they have no reserves remaining.

Banks can buy Treasury debt, which is liquid. The debt pays some interest. Something is better than nothing. Not to buy Treasury debt is to throw money away. Banks do not throw money away. Banks buy Treasury debt; the government spends it. Businesses seeking loans find that they must pay higher interest, because the Treasury gets the money. So, the government's share of the economy grows. This reduces productivity. An economy in a recession needs productivity to get out of the recession.

The fractional reserve process takes over. The money supply grows. We can see this happening now. Here are the latest M1 statistics. You can see that the figure is headed straight up after years of being flat.

Alert anyone you think should see this. Email this page. People can monitor these statistics free of charge on my site. Go to Federal Reserve Charts and Yield Curve, which are in the Free Materials section of my site.