View Article  The Century Of The Self
There was a fantastic 4 part series on BBC 4 that is online. It is called the Century Of The Self. It's all about the history of public relations.

The episodes are on Google Video and are archived here.

The first episode goes into detail about the influence of Edward Bernays on shaping both consumerism and modern democracy. Well worth watching.

Here is the first episode.


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View Article  Joe Stiglitz Speaks
Joseph Stiglitz seems to be getting a lot of press at the moment... A noted Keynsian, he offers another point of view to the Chicago school of thought that Milton Friedman pioneered...

Here is something from the Telegraph in the UK:

"The biggest fear is that long-term bond rates won't come down in line with short-term rates. We'll have the reverse of what we've seen in recent years, and that is what is frightening the markets," he told the Daily Telegraph, while trudging through ice and snow in Davos.

 
Joseph Stiglitz
Stiglitz is worried about the level of long-term interest rates

"The mechanism of monetary policy is ineffective in these circumstances. I'm not saying it won't work at all: it will help the banking system but the credit squeeze is going to go on because nobody trusts anybody else. The Fed is pushing on a string," he said.


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View Article  Shell Does Scenario Planning
Climate change is here. That is now commonly accepted.

Here is something pretty interesting though. According to an article in The Scotsman Shell are making public their scenario planning documentation and the conclusions that they draw.

There are two key scenarios that emerge - codenamed "Scramble" and "Blueprints"

From the article:

Scramble is a scenario where self-interest predominates initially. Voters in the West and in the developing world are unwilling to make radical changes in lifestyle. Politicians concentrate on trying to optimise within their own national perspectives. As a result there is global competition for resources and little attention paid to cutting energy consumption. Naturally, this will lead to new international political tensions and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb.

The second scenario, "Blueprints" is more benign. Governments accept that climate change and skyrocketing global energy demand require a co-ordinated solution on the Kyoto model. This starts slowly – think the recent Bali accords – but gathers momentum in time to avoid the worst prospects for global warming and energy wars. New energy technology also plays a big role.





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View Article  Simon Napier-Bell on the Music Industry
Last weekend my old friend Simon Napier-Bell gave the music industry a serve that should ensure that he gets taken out to lunch by those people who still have expense accounts. The article is not, I hasten to add, a flattering picture of the business or the business practices that made it.

If you are at all interested in the music industry you should read it. Simon is one of the few people that I know who has the benefit of knowing quite intimately all of the big players who made the music industry what it is today - Ahmet Ertegun, Clive Davis, Mo Ostin, Tommy Mottola.... these are the serious players in the game.

Simon told me that he will never be able to make a deal again in the music business as a result of the article. That may be true. But a lot of people who want the goods on the big wheels will perhaps want to talk to Simon...
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View Article  Lester Brown Address At Pop Tech
This is a video that I discovered on Home Page Daily. Those guys are doing some of the best aggregation of video available on the web today for people who are awake and who care about the planet and the issues. Definitely worth visiting. Unfortunately they haven't yet figured out how to run personalized RSS feeds or alerts in the way that Real News Network has...

This is Lester Brown at the recent Pop Tech:


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View Article  Global Financial System And The Rise Of Gold
How long does it take for a story online to build up a head of steam and move beyond the rumour stage into becoming fact?

Over the last two years (and more) pundits have been talking about the problems with the US fed and the fiat dollar. Friends who are in the financial markets have been saying to me that there is still some steam left in the market and it is all about knowing when to get out.

We are now seeing the major investment banking houses taking massive multi-billion dollar write downs from their exposure to subprime and even the ones who don't have direct exposure are going to get hit.

Here is one view:

This break point will entail numerous disastrous effects for the world’s largest financial institutions, in particular for all those who do not yet fully understand the meaning of ongoing tendencies and therefore who remain largely involved in the US dollar system currently imploding. These institutions will experience, to a much larger degree, what those who failed to anticipate the subprime crisis experienced, now being on the verge of disaster

Stephen Roach says that it is not about the US dollar. It is about the unrealistic prices on American assets.

A sharp decline in asset prices is necessary to rebalance the US economy. It is the only realistic hope to shift the mix of saving away from asset appreciation back to that supported by income generation. That could entail as much as a 20-30 per cent decline in overall US housing prices and a related deflating of the bubble of cheap and easy credit.

The problem for the rest of the world is that our economies are all reliant in no small part on the American consumer.

What we are also seeing that I don't believe any of the pundits or the central bankers or the investment bankers for that matter have considered in their models, is the massive change in how the public now is able to share information.

Because of the accelerated speed of communications we now have not just a rumour mill that takes place online, we have an environment. This is critical.

The communications environment gives people an urgency to act together.

As people start seriously reading about gold being a storehouse of value, I believe that there will be a massive move to invest in gold bullion, securities etc. We already know that demand is greater than supply. What is that going to mean to the price of gold?

The dollar is at risk. The global markets are at risk. Gold is solid and tangible. I believe that we are going to see a new gold rush where gold will go to heights that no one can imagine - and all driven by instant communications, rumour and a distrust for anything that looks like it has the thumbprint of banks on it.

We shall see.
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View Article  What A Wonderful Story
What a wonderful story!

Daniel Barenboim, the conductor, who also is an Israeli, has accepted a Palestinian passport.

His comment in this article in the UK Independent says it all:

"I have also accepted it because I believe that the destinies of ... the Israeli people and the Palestinian people are inextricably linked," Barenboim said. "We are blessed - or cursed - to live with each other. And I prefer the first."
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View Article  A View Of Bush From Outside and Inside The US
I watched Bush last night on the news strutting his stuff in Israel and wondered how it is possible that he could be so delusional as to think that his rhetoric about peace in the Middle East is going to create the sort of legacy that any world leader would want as he prepares to leave office over the coming year.

Then I went out to dinner and someone started talking about John Howard and the shambles that he left in this country, and how the healing has begun. Yes. Its true. The healing has begun. And regardless of the positive that Howard did during his period in office and regardless of the shambles he may have inherited he ultimately was an incredibly divisive Prime Minister. It isn't about the party he belonged to. It is about the quality of the human being.... just like it is everywhere. Bush is no different - an unbelievably divisive person.

And then I read a piece of writing this morning written by Chris Hedges who was at one time the Middle East Bureau Chief at the New York Times. It captures perfectly the way that the thinking world sees things. It is also something that four or five years ago I would never have imagined anyone in the US would have written about the President of the United States. Americans are so respectful of their elected leaders. The writing is remarkable for not just what it says, but the way that it says it.

Please read the whole thing. Here is an excerpt:

The Gilbert and Sullivan charade of statesmanship played out by George W. Bush and his enabler, Condoleezza Rice, as they wander the Middle East is a fitting end to seven years of misrule.  Despots stripped of power are transformed from monsters into buffoons.  And this is the metamorphosis that is eating away at the Bush presidency. 

Bush stood in Jerusalem, uncomfortable and palpably bored.  He mouthed platitudes about a peace settlement that mocked the humanitarian crisis he aided and abetted in Gaza, the rapacious land grab by Israel in the West Bank and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The diminished George Bush, increasingly irrelevant at home and abroad, is fading into insignificance.  A year from now one half expects to see him stand up at the next president’s inauguration and screech “I’m melting!  I’m melting!” as he sinks into a puddle of slime.  He will return, I expect, to his ranch, where he will be able to spend the rest of his life doing the only task for which he has shown any aptitude—cutting down brush with a chain saw. 




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View Article  John Edwards
Interesting story about John Edwards in The Guardian. I'm  not sure whether it was placed by people who are pro-Edwards or anti-Edwards. Maybe Edwards is trying to position himself as a VP for either Obama or Clinton - as the left winger to balance their right wing tendencies, particularly Clinton...

The former North Carolina senator's chosen profession alone raises the hackles of business people. Before entering politics, he made a fortune as a trial lawyer.
In litigious America, trial lawyers bring lawsuits against companies on behalf of aggrieved individuals and sometimes win multimillion-dollar settlements. Edwards won several.
But beyond his profession, Edwards' tone and language on the campaign trail have increased business antipathy toward him. His stump speeches are peppered with attacks on "corporate greed" and warnings of "the destruction of the middle class."
He accuses lobbyists of "corrupting the government" and says Americans lack universal health care because of "drug companies, insurance companies and their lobbyists."
Despite not winning the two state nominating contests completed so far, with 48 to go, Edwards insists he is in the race to stay. An Edwards campaign spokesman said on Thursday that inside-the-Beltway operatives who fight to defend the powerful and the privileged should be afraid.
"The lobbyists and special interests who abuse the system in Washington have good reason to fear John Edwards.
"Once he is president, the interests of middle class families will never again take a back seat to corporate greed in Washington," said campaign spokesman Eric Schultz.

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View Article  George MacDonald Fraser
George MacDonald Fraser died a couple of weeks ago.

I remember reading some of his Flashman books when they first came out, many years ago. Not only was Fraser a very witty and satirical author, he was also a very successful screenplay writer, his most successful works being The Three Musketeers...

Before he died, Fraser wrote a really good piece about political correctness.

Here is some of that article:

When 30 years ago I resurrected Flashman, the bully in Thomas Hughes's Victorian novel Tom Brown's Schooldays, political correctness hadn't been heard of, and no exception was taken to my adopted hero's character, behaviour, attitude to women and subject races (indeed, any races, including his own) and general awfulness.

On the contrary, it soon became evident that these were his main attractions. He was politically incorrect with a vengeance.

Through the Seventies and Eighties I led him on his disgraceful way, toadying, lying, cheating, running away, treating women as chattels, abusing inferiors of all colours, with only one redeeming virtue - the unsparing honesty with which he admitted to his faults, and even gloried in them.

And no one minded, or if they did, they didn't tell me. In all the many thousands of readers' letters I received, not one objected.

In the Nineties, a change began to take place. Reviewers and interviewers started describing Flashman (and me) as politically incorrect, which we are, though by no means in the same way.

This is fine by me. Flashman is my bread and butter, and if he wasn't an elitist, racist, sexist swine, I'd be selling bootlaces at street corners instead of being a successful popular writer.

But what I notice with amusement is that many commentators now draw attention to Flashy's (and my) political incorrectness in order to make a point of distancing themselves from it.

It's not that they dislike the books. But where once the non-PC thing could pass unremarked, they now feel they must warn readers that some may find Flashman offensive, and that his views are certainly not those of the interviewer or reviewer, God forbid.

I find the disclaimers alarming. They are almost a knee-jerk reaction and often rather a nervous one, as if the writer were saying: "Look, I'm not a racist or sexist. I hold the right views and I'm in line with modern enlightened thought, honestly."

They won't risk saying anything to which the PC lobby could take exception. And it is this that alarms me - the fear evident in so many sincere and honest folk of being thought out of step.



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