John Howard was, for whatever reason, what seemed to be a slavish follower of George Bush.

Read this essay called Bad, Worse, Worst to get one person's view on what is wrong with Bush and the American Presidency.

What is interesting about it is the concept that Bush wants government programs to fail so that they can be privatized. To me that is one of the legacies of the Howard government in Australia. Let's hope that under a new government this will not continue.

Here is a sample of the essay:

    A government program that actually and effectively serves the people is an intolerable thing to George, because that is the single best argument against privatization. If we know anything at all after all these gruesome years, it is that Bush simply will not tolerate the existence of any fact or idea that might disrupt the spinning, clanking, gear-grinding clockwork inside that craven pretzel-dented bone-sack that wobbles above his spindled, slumping shoulders. If he doesn't already believe in something, or if something contradicts the popsicle-stick infrastructure of his beliefs, whatever it is can basically go to Hell, because it isn't going anywhere else.

    He vetoed those bills because they were going to work, period, end of file.

Check out this article. This guy predicts that the dollar may go down as much as 90% and gold will go to $2,000. Of course the price of gold is only going to be of relevance to you if you are in the US. Everywhere else one would expect it to retain parity.

I have been writing about the topic of global financial meltdown for a few years, but the more I write about it the less it seems to happen.

The interventions by people like Greenspan in the US to reduce interest rates in order to maintain liquidity has always pushed the timing back. However, there has to be a time for reckoning and it appears to be coming soon in the US.

See this article about the ongoing problems with Subprime. And you can read one of Paul Krugman's recent articles here.

There is a story in Fortune here.

The big question for all of us though, is "how will this affect me?"

Most people do not understand interdependency. Everything is connected. Everyone is connected. This is the beginning of a very real crisis for the world. It has impact on the value of the dollar first. Imagine one of the street spruikers talking down the price of the goods in the discount store. (I did that job once. Its not hard to gather a crowd if you've got the right product!). Except this time instead of selling the cheap goods manufactured in China he is selling down the dollar itself! And just like the value proposition presented at the discount store, everything is going for only a fraction of what you would have expected.

That scenario is coming to all of us. And two things emerge from that. First, the raw materials that we get out of the ground and sell to China are priced largely in US dollars. The contracts are written and they are not negotiable. So that means that as the greenback loses another 15 or 20%, maybe more, of its value, the top line revenue of Australian exporters is trashed. And all the while the costs of labour continue in Aussie dollars. And that is the good news here.

Because the bad news gets very bad. Americans will find it very hard to extract more cash out of their houses. And that is how many Americans have been living for the last ten years. Their ability to consume has been fed by their ability to extract money out of their homes. For the last two years inventory of houses has been growing over there and prices have been falling. Classic depression modality.

And meanwhile China will continue to hold firm on the value of the yuan against the dollar ensuring that they can continue to sell more finished goods into America and soak every last dollar out of them. They too are caught in the need to keep feeding the beast.

And all the while the Wall St bankers keep taking tens of millions of dollars in annual bonuses.

Talk about the days of the French Revolution. "Let them eat cake". Well we know what that led to, don't we?

In Australia we have a new government and it is all bright and shiny. It has a treasury bursting with dollars, and it has made a heap of promises. But the truth is that we are caught on the same merry go round. We need to pull back, take a deep breath, and figure out what to do next. And the next is almost certainly going to be a "how to respond to a significant recession" scenario.

Interest rates are set to rise again we are told - perhaps a couple of times in the next quarter.

What is that going to mean for the ordinary man in the street? Owning your own home becomes more expensive, perhaps untenable. Prices in the housing sector are going to have to halt.

But the big lenders who do low docs home loans and can't show on their books that they have Triple A paper with their borrowers are going to find it difficult to refinance too. Which is going to put added pressure on their customers, the people who can afford it least.

I was told on the weekend that this is already happening with some of the lenders, who are having themselves to pay a premium on their borrowings, which of course are being passed on to their customers.

Watch for the whole thing to start spiralling to dizzy heights somewhere in the first quarter of 2008.

For those people who visit this blog and are interested in my new book.... it is going quite well thanks!

I am working on getting the first 50,000 words polished to get to Mary Cunnane, my agent. And then I find out whether the rubber hits the road or not!

During the last two months as I have particularly focused on the 60's and 70's - London, the music scene, traveling the hippie trail - a smorgasbord of experience at a very rich time in social history, I have been motivated to find out "what happened to...?" You know how at the end of some movies, the closing credits say, " George X became an investment banker and married a princess. Joan Y was indicted for being a serial killer... etc. etc".

Well it has been fascinating tracking down a few of the protagonists from my life who I have lost touch with over the last 30 years.

In the last month or so I caught up with Louise Denver, who was one of the most daring investigative video journalists around during the 60's. She is living in Sydney now. I spoke to David Redom, who was her partner. He was also one of the top rock photographers in London in the 60's. He, sadly, has a degenerative neural disease and is in a nursing home just out of London.

In the last week I had a call from Rob Gold, who was the keyboard player from Kate, the band I was in. I had left a message on his phone a few weeks back and then forgotten about it. It was great to catch up with him. Rob has been a manager and publisher ever since that time we were in a band, managing Tim Rose who wrote some great songs in his time.

And then a few weeks ago I had dinner with Simon Napier-Bell. He and I became friends in the 70's after I had come to Australia. Simon, of course, managed Wham! But he was at the centre of what was happening in the music scene in London in the 60's too - he managed the Yardbirds, and produced them. And Simon has more great stories about the music business than anyone on the planet has a right to!

Memories of exciting revolutionary times, crazy times, people and events.... they are so much richer for sharing with others who were there.

While doing the research I also came across some reviews for the band and a picture....

Here it is straight from 1968! Kate....

I was trying to find a reference to Pascal's Theorem about why it makes sense to believe in God...

Came across this instead.... 300 - count 'em - proofs of why God does exists...

Here are a couple...

1. ARGUMENT FROM LACK OF EVIDENCE (II) (MODIFIED SIMPSON’S ARGUMENT)
   (1) God, if you exist, please give me absolutely no sign.
   (2)
   (3) Therefore, God exists.

2. ARGUMENT FROM IDIOCY
   (1) I am an idiot.
   (2) Even an idiot can see that God exists.
   (3) Therefore, God exists.

Prior to the election, Rudd announced that he would work to get hybrid cars being manufactured in Australia.

Mitsubishi already have a plant in South Australia that could potentially be modified to enable the manufacture of the just announced Mitsubishi electric car, that is rumoured to be based on the model that was shown at the Tokyo motor show recently and is pictured below. The Mitsubishi is due to be available to the market in 2010. 

If Rudd could pull that off it would be a tremendous coup. Delivers ongoing motor car manufacturing, so some kind of national independance in the sector; continuing jobs in the motor industry; a green vision for the electorate (who are crying out for continuing green thinking, as indicated by the huge green vote in the election).

Howard is out.

We have a new Prime Minister in Australia, as of tonight. It is Kevin Rudd.

And the Liberals have been finally voted out after more than eleven years of rule. How bloody wonderful!

Over the next 100 day it will be interesting to see how much Kevin can get done:

Pulp Mill
War In Iraq
Kyoto Treaty

Some big issues there. And remember: this is the first time that an elected government in a Western democracy has been voted out at a time of strong economic performance.

Lovely ad on the Domain.com.au web site. Can't imagine it will be allowed to stay up for long so I have captured the pix here and the copy is copied and pasted below!

Enjoy



Impressive waterfront views! Poised on the top of a hill and the envy of many onlookers, this two storey house is a residence of power. Far superior to any old Lodge in Canberra, this house fits a family of five and provides the ultimate abode in which to be relaxed and comfortable.
* Breathtaking views of Sydney's beautiful harbour
* Perfect place to view Sydney's fireworks - especially during events like the APEC long weekend
* Ideal for extra-curricular fundraising activities
* Includes a $200 000 set of executive chairs (not from IKEA!)
* Plans for $500 000+ renovation of the dining room to re-enact the predicted last supper
* Uses 28 times more water than the average Sydney household – one of few properties that can be credited for creating its own mini-drought
* Current occupant considering a move even if a new lease is signed
* A million dollar garden ($1 118 000 million over 6 years) with no worms (well not the kind that gets turned of mid-debate during 60 minutes)
* Recently received a $386 500 security upgrade that unfortunately doesn’t stop fireball wielding psychos
* Price negotiable just like your Work Choices employment contract… NOT
* Neighbours you know and trust – ‘you can't help but love Maxine’
The Lodge: Live centre stage in Canberra!
You can’t go past this bargain in the nation’s capital. It’s not often an opportunity like this comes along. While it doesn’t have the sweeping harbour views of Kirribilli House, you’ll also be at home in this residence of power.
* Owner selling off assets in an effort to go out with a bang
* Tried twice before to evict the current tenant and its looking like it’s third time lucky
* Long-term occupancy available (depending on your accountant's or treasurer's plans)
* Needs a good clean and the lawn mowed: tenant barely there
* Recently refurbished reception areas
* Trying to save $7500 of tax payer funds for every flight between Canberra and Sydney and another $7500 for a VIP jet to return empty
* Dial-up internet access only – ‘broadband is just a fad’ – two hours to download a YouTube clip is not a big ask, is it?
* Neighbours you know and trust – ‘as if’
Act now, it’s only a matter of time before interest rates go up again… and again… and maybe even again. Particularly given there is a greater chance of Australia signing the Kyoto protocol or saying ‘sorry’ than housing ever being affordable in this lifetime.
Written, spoken and authorised by The People of Australia for the People of Australia. Please note this advertisement was not funded by 70% of labour’s union officials and did not cost taxpayers anything. Your money is only being used to pay for empty private jets, $500 million dollars in advertising to secure your vote in the last week of the election and the usual election sweeteners recently announced.

Slattery IT had an event tonight at the Sydney Museum. (Great venue by the way!)

After the panel discussion, which was excellent, I went across the road to have a drink with the people who had attended including the panelists.

I got talking to a group - not surprisingly women - and was quite amazed at the vehement support in the group that I talked to for either the Greens or for Labour. Not a bit of support for John Howard in the group.

The media advertising black out starts tonight on paid ads by the parties on mainstream traditional media. So for the next couple of days I am expecting to see every banner on the web being a political ad, and a lot of video.

Roll on Saturday and the election!

And by the way if you want to see something really good watch Bob Hawke explain some home truths about the Howard years. I was talking to a lady at the panel discussion who reads this blog from time to time about my politics. We both agreed: You might as well be clear about where you stand. With information technology the powers that be will find out anyway. My views are very clear. They are not about left or right. They are about right and wrong. And Howard has led this country to a place where the nation's brand equity has been squandered; where our morality is now in tatters, and where the country has been allowed to become corrupt in its abiding interest in self.

I remember when I was about 14 years old in South Africa. A friend's parents took us to see a movie that was about the lack of morality associated with racism. I don't remember the name of the movie, but I remember that it had an effect on me.

Howard couldn't even say, "Sorry" to the aboriginal people of Australia. I am sure he means well. But then that's what Pinochet would have said too, probably.

I am not particularly enthusiastic about Rudd being a fundamentalist Christian either. But change is what we have before us right now. We need to embrace that and take the opportunity.

If Labour gets in, with the Senate balance of power held by the Greens, we have a short window of time available to us in this country to see change take place. If Labour doesn't take the opportunity to maximise the potential of that change they will let us all down. Hopefully it will be change that doesn't take the country further into hock to America.

Very lucid presentation from Larry Lessig about the law and the need for business and legislators to understand why they need to readjust their thinking...