Over the last few months there has been a lot of speculation in the economic reports and blogs that I have been reading about the potential for derailment of the global economy fueled by the US economy running out of steam for a variety of reasons. Energy costs brougnt on by Peak Oil, increasing interest rates ensure that housing bubble bursts, consumers just get tired of the same old crap coming out of Hollywood, etc.

Of course there are some other real issues that have a big part to play in some of the above - US GDP, speculative interest in real estate in Florida and Nevada, stability of hedge funds (several of the big ones have closed recently), potential for foreign countries to dump US$ reserves - among many more.

I am just starting to think though, countertuivity being one of the things that Perceptric is all about, that perhaps Katrina will turn out to be the thing that keeps the US economy from becoming derailed.

Look at it this way: Just as people have got enough DVD players, playstations, houses, and white goods to be totally spent out, along comes a demand driver of humungous proportions.

New homes will need to be built. And as we speak, big building companies' stock prices are jumping in anticipation of renewed growth. But at the same time all the people who are now disposessed will need to replace all those white goods that they have lost. Regardless of whether they were insured or not, and I bet that a lot of them weren't, they won't be able to live without their DVD players, their Playstations, and all the content that goes with them.

That is going to represent literally millions of replacement goods sales over the next 18 months, along with raw materials and labor to rebuild. And New Orleans will bounce back as the jewel in the crown of the USA over the next 5 years. It will have brand new infrastructure, new building regulations that ensure flood preparedness. This is going to be where the money will be spent regardless of where it may end up.

Chinese plants and factories will be working every hour God sent to meet this demand and the US and global economy will be driven into hyperdrive one more time.... but only if the US also ratchets down its military engagement costs. If it continues to spend like a drunken sailor on war, which is a totally unproductive way to use capital, all this opportunity may come to nothing and we may yet see the biggest economic meltdown in history.