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Blogging The Future
At Perceptric we are fascinated with the "What Happens Next?" questions.
What happens next to the way we consume media? What happens next to the way we consume products? What are the influencing factors? And who are the influencers? One of the drivers in this is the question of what happens next to the economy? Here are some of the vectors that will influence this at present - and I have to say that we are about to hit a very interesting period in history. And it is one that we would all do well to consider going in to it. First we have the whole aspect of globalism that means that information is instantly available to all of us, and is becoming more and more commodotized. In this global economy, we see the US, with its largest current account defecit in history, about to change the Chairman of the Fed. Historically this has always been something that has ripples associated with it. This time round though, it comes at a time when the impact of increased energy has yet to reach the consumer market. At a time when the cost of rebuilding from the hurricane season has yet to hit. At a time when there is an enormously costly war going on. At a time when the very survival of a company like GM is being questioned. When there is a housing bubble....Lots of inflationary pressures. A new guy at the Fed whose expertise is inflation - but the customary way to deal with inflation is to raise interest rates, I always understood.... and if he does that on top of massive increases in energy costs and massive asset leverage, where does that leave the economy? Stephen Roach seems to think that it will lead either to interest rate hikes or massive devaluation of the dollar. But he has also pointed out that the Chinese renmimbi valuation is inextricably linked to the dollar because of the reliance the Chinese economy has on the US - with some 45% of its exports going there. At the same time this macro stuff is happening, we have some other pretty important things happening too... I heard on the ABC Science Show last week (I get the podcast) in an interview with an eminent scientist, that global warming will mean the displacement of 200 million people on the coastlines of India and China in the next few decades. At the same time all that is taking place, we are going to see ongoing disintermediation. Concepts like skype are going to change radically the way we consume our personal communications. I could go on and on.... what other key vectors are going to have major impact on us next year?
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According to Wikipedia a perceptron is a type of artificial neural network. Ergo a “Perceptric” is a person who creates or uses a neural network. The Perceptric Blog is where Chris Gilbey posts thoughts, ideas, and links intended to stimulate thought and accelerate the transfer of ideas. Chris is available for consulting work with the premise that it is not technologies that are disruptive so much as the people that use them. The Perceptric mission is to help companies and people reach their goals and exceed their expectations. This will often mean offering counterintuitive conclusions. Our view? The shortest distance between two points is not necessarily a straight line. It's the number of people needed to be present in a human network to influence and deliver positive decision making. Login
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