by
Chris Gilbey
on October 30, 2005 08:15AM (EST)
At Perceptric we are fascinated with the "What Happens Next?" questions.
What happens next to the way we consume media? What happens next to the
way we consume products? What are the influencing factors? And who are
the influencers?
One of the drivers in this is the question of what happens next to the economy?
Here are some of the vectors that will influence this at present - and
I have to say that we are about to hit a very interesting period in
history. And it is one that we would all do well to consider going in
to it.
First we have the whole aspect of globalism that means that information
is instantly available to all of us, and is becoming more and more
commodotized.
In this global economy, we see the US, with its largest current account
defecit in history, about to change the Chairman of the Fed.
Historically this has always been something that has ripples associated
with it. This time round though, it comes at a time when the impact of
increased energy has yet to reach the consumer market. At a time when
the cost of rebuilding from the hurricane season has yet to hit. At a
time when there is an enormously costly war going on. At a time when
the very survival of a company like GM is being questioned. When there
is a housing bubble....Lots of inflationary pressures. A new guy at the
Fed whose expertise is inflation - but the customary way to deal with
inflation is to raise interest rates, I always understood.... and if he
does that on top of massive increases in energy costs and massive asset
leverage, where does that leave the economy?
Stephen Roach seems to
think that
it will lead either to interest rate hikes or massive devaluation of
the dollar. But he has also pointed out that the Chinese renmimbi
valuation is inextricably linked to the dollar because of the reliance
the Chinese economy has on the US - with some 45% of its exports going
there.
At the same time this macro stuff is happening, we have some other pretty important things happening too...
I heard on the ABC Science Show last week (I get the
podcast)
in an interview with an eminent scientist, that global warming will
mean the displacement of 200 million people on the coastlines of India
and China in the next few decades.
At the same time all that is taking place, we are going to see ongoing
disintermediation. Concepts like skype are going to change radically
the way we consume our personal communications.
I could go on and on.... what other key vectors are going to have major impact on us next year?