Perceptric Forum :: Strategy

Tuesday, September 9

Israel Of The Caucasus

by Chris Gilbey on September 9, 2008 09:46AM (EST)

Fascinating article by Arnaud de Borchgrave on the background to the recent Georgian war and how the balance of power has changed as a result.

He provides the background to the largely unreported role that the Israeli defence forces had in the period leading up to the war, how local airfields were to be used as staging posts for an attack on Iran and the fact that America's intelligence gathering capabilities were overstretched with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Here is a sample of the article:

Georgia also had a special relationship with Israel that was mostly under the radar. Georgian Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili is a former Israeli who moved things along by facilitating Israeli arms sales with U.S. aid. "We are now in a fight against the great Russia," he was quoted as saying, "and our hope is to receive assistance from the White House because Georgia cannot survive on its own."

The Jerusalem Post on Aug. 12 reported, "Georgian Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze made a special call to Israel Tuesday morning to receive a blessing from one of the Haredi community's most important rabbis and spiritual leaders, Rabbi Aaron Leib Steinman. 'I want him to pray for us and our state,'" he was quoted.

Israel began selling arms to Georgia seven years ago. U.S. grants facilitated these purchases. From Israel came former minister and former Tel Aviv Mayor Roni Milo, representing Elbit Systems, and his brother Shlomo, former director general of Military Industries. Israeli UAV spy drones, made by Elbit Maarahot Systems, conducted recon flights over southern Russia, as well as into nearby Iran.

In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured.

Keywords: war

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Sunday, September 7

Global Chess Game

by Chris Gilbey on September 7, 2008 07:07AM (EST)

Its amazing how many people seem to believe that there are surprises when it comes to what nations do. There are no real surprises. Instead there is scenario planning, psychology, brinkmanship, bluff and double-bluff, and huge amounts of money spent on projecting, or giving the appearance of projecting, power.

Very few of us truly know what is going on in the minds of the people in power. We can only imagine. But one thing is for sure - things don't happen by accident.

I came across an analysis of the grand chess game being played out in the Caucasus that provides one hypothetical deconstruction of Georgia, the US and Russia that is worth reading.

Neither of these explanations is accurate. To fully grasp the recent upheavals in the Caucasus, it is necessary to view the conflict as but a minor skirmish in a far more significant geopolitical struggle between Moscow and Washington over the energy riches of the Caspian Sea basin -- with former Russian President (now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin emerging as the reigning Grand Master of geostrategic chess and the Bush team turning out to be middling amateurs, at best.

The ultimate prize in this contest is control over the flow of oil and natural gas from the energy-rich Caspian basin to eager markets in Europe and Asia. According to the most recent tally by oil giant BP, the Caspian's leading energy producers, all former "socialist republics" of the Soviet Union -- notably Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan -- together possess approximately 48 billion barrels in proven oil reserves (roughly equivalent to those left in the U.S. and Canada) and 268 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (essentially equivalent to what Saudi Arabia possesses).

Keywords: war, threats, Politics

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