When I was a little boy, growing up, my mother attempted to instill into me some manners.

 

For example, on the subject of visiting I learnt never to arrive somewhere [a private house] without a gift for the matriarch of the household.

 

Regular readers would be aware that I enjoy growing Bonsai or as my partner would say - torturing little plants.

 

However after a few years of me clipping, pruning, re-potting, wiring, [OK maybe it is torture], she is amazed at some of the results I have produced.

 

Whenever we visit somewhere, we take with us a bottle or two of wine and of course the mandatory “original design Koltai Bonsai” which is always presented to the matriarch with great aplomb by myself with detailed care instructions. “Water twice daily in the summer, place in partial sun.”

 

Gifting Bonsai’s also enables one to strike up a conversation at the next get-together, barbecue, etc. and inquire after the well-being of the little plant.

 

So far the longevity of these “visit gift bonsai’s” is batting a thousand. Yep, they all died.

 

So I am re-assessing the concept of gifting Bonsai’s as a visiting gift. I’m thinking that if they’re going to die anyway, I may as well just take cut flowers.

 

This week my partner suggested I list some Bonsai on Ebay to see what they are worth.

 

To anyone that grows Bonsai as a hobby only, this suggestion screams commercial exploitation which in turn converts the hobby into work.

 

To keep the peace, I listed a three year old Bonsai on Ebay.

 

Now one has to remember, these little trees are looked upon by myself as more valuable than my Book, DVD, Album or CD collections.

 

I quite often spend hours, pinching leaves, tweaking aluminium wire, repotting, snipping branches, weeding, and feeding my Bonsai with worm juice. (Yes, that’s the liquid the exits a worm farm. We have a healthy worm farm that recycles all our surplus vegetable matter  and produces about two litres of worm juice per day.)

 

So for me, Bonsai growing is relaxation and thinking therapy. My Bonsai’s have assisted me in fixing many of the world’s problems (in my mind) whilst I torture the little trees.

 

The result of patiently growing little trees into unusual shapes is therefore a psychological art form.

 

No different to millions playing Farmville and creating virtual farms with everything lined up nice and neatly.

 

To millions, Farmville is the time-sink of choice. The resulting finished product commercial value is zero (to the player).

 

However to the service providers, game owners, advertisers and click-thru monetization corporations, Farmville is a dream come true.

 

To me, my time-sink results in a tree in  a pot that evokes warm feelings of awe at the detail of miniaturisation without the vutuality. In other words, my trees are real. (Until I give them to someone at which point they seem to die.)

 

Recognition of artistic merit in the modern world is measured in shekels, or suitable coin of the realm; so I agreed to the eBay experiment as a measure of what value others would place on my skill as a tree torturer.

 

Well it sold. For $19.90.

Estimated time spent on nurturing, pruning, shaping, wiring, repotting, weeding? About three hours.

Time spent in producing the eBay listing? About two hours, (although as it was my first listing, there was a learning curve.)

 

The value of the tree (untrained) from a nursery is approximately five dollars. (Although I grew this plant from a cutting – so the real cost was zero) The pot cost me $3.95.

 

Therefore as a commercial exercise, the result was $2.35 per hour for my time.

 

All in all an interesting experiment, but not what I would call a runaway success.

 

However, if we consider that this was a leisure time activity, and I received the therapeutic benefit of the act of torturing said little tree then we have a 133% profit margin.

 

Obviously, growing bonsai is not a suitable career choice option.

 

Oh dear, back to the drawing board……..

 

What was that? You want to see the little tree that I sold on Ebay?

 

 

Conclusion?  I am now going to spend the next twelve months of my life writing a Facebook game called “Virtual Bonsai” which will allow people to click thousands of times to grow a virtual bonsai which I will surround with advertisements and sponsor messages.

 

I will patent the process of growing a virtual bonsai.

 

I  will then copyright the term, virtualbonsai.

 

I will then spend two million dollars per month advertising this as the best best time sink.

 

I will then make a lot of money.

Both from the click-thru advertising and the copyright and trademark breach lawsuits that I will pursue mercilessly.

 

I certainly expect to make more from this virtual enterprise than actually making or growing something and then selling it.  

For those that don't have two million dollars to spend on advertising a virtual world on Faceobok, here's a community service message to assist you in saving the economy.

The fastest growing and most successful Companies in the World are the proof against an increased attention by anyone to the importance of Copyright and Trademark.

 

For sometime I have been lobbying hard against Australia’s involvement in ACTA.

 

Lobbying Koltai? Is that what you call it? Well yes. I don’t have access in any meaningful way to the Federal Roll Call of Parliamentary members. I don’t have the backing of millions to hire someone to luncheon these people and I doubt they would take my call if I made it. (I tried calling Stephen Conroy's press secretary and even he didnt return my calls.)

Federal and international politics run on their own extremely fast-track timetables.

 

The public are asked to comment only usually once the Politicians have been convinced of the lobbyists point of view and the Bill has been drafted. By then any action can only be the people versus their legislators.

 

This can only result in two outcomes.

 

The people are branded as revolutionary activists and sent to financial and commercial purgatory, or;

The Politicians are viewed as being in the pockets of the industries that donated the most cash for electioneering efforts.

Unfortunately the system in it's present format does not allow for a moderate middle of the road approach.

Subsequently, because of industry lobbyists, politics these days is a war between the politicians and their voters.

A few months ago, I posited the concept that possibly, the idea of a game where the people could vote on how to create the budget would actually involve the voters in an understanding  as to why politicians make the decisions they do.

  

Voters are a simple lot really.

To obtain the loyalty of the voters, Generals and leaders traditionally have merely had to follow the lead of the early philosophers.

Since 4 century (BCE) the saying "wine women and song" or the Sankskrit equivalent "Sur, Sura, Sundari" (music, wine and woman) has endeared the leaders to their followers.

Today, voters are no different.

They vote for more money in their pockets.

And they want to be entertained. I don't beleive a single voter has ever voted AYE on the issue "I want to pay $75.00 per Movie that I buy." Nor do I believe that they would.

We have also learned that with increased levels of entertainment, society frustrations reduce and the crime rate drops. (Unless pending copyright law ammendments criminalize everyone, in which case, our jails will unfortunately need rapid expansion.)

If elections were based on the cost alone of video and music entertainment, then a very different series of problems would be now foremost in the minds of our global leaders.

History has taught us that if the entertainment isn’t available through legal means

i.e.: Foxtel because of the average 50 repeats of each movie per year,

or The TV stations want to save a few dollars by buying the series a year later,

or the International distributor that purchased the series will roll it out when they want to roll it out;

then they, (the voters) download the content.

Foxtel executives actually created the current copyright legislation headache in three ways.

 

They lobbied successfully for alterations to the legislation to allow for Digital Video Recording of their content. That opened the door to DVR’s from competitors, TIVO and others.

 

They started transmitting Foxtel content to phone subscribers.

 

And, after achieving the above, they decided not to subscribe for the latest programs on release from the overseas content creators.

 

The Commercial channels are also in cahoots with Foxtel by choosing to air new television series only during the TV ratings period to impress advertisers that are no doubt by now sick and tired of the media lies of how many eyeballs are actually watching their adverts.

 

The truth is that almost 40% of Australia no longer watches TV adverts.

 

Therefore advertising is leaving on mass for the popular Internet destinations.

 

Which are?

 

Well we blogged several articles about Zynga’s Facebook located Farmville. It managed to pick up a few million players every week to reach its current lofty 50 million registered monthly players

 

To assist me in my analysis of Zynga Games I signed up to Farmville on Facebook and a couple of other games and played religiously for seven weeks.

 

My farm is now a wasteland of dead crops. I lost interest in the repetitious rather boring nature of click click click with no clear benefit.

Interestingly enough, my partner (female, mother of three) and her married daughter are both still playing. I have no understanding of the attraction, yet both of them are the shopping denizens of their respective households, therefore there is very real demographic attention data to be collected there.

 

Farmville has managed to create a business of click click with no clear beneficial outcome with the exception that it is a massive timesink that people seem to enjoy.

 

And where did Farmville come from?

 

Well it was an infringement of the design and player concept of Farmtown.

 

So it was a knock-off clone?

 

Yep.

 

Did Farmtown sue?

 

I don’t think so.

 

Why not?

 

Because following Farmville werea whole plethora of "Farming" games.

Farm Buddy

Happy Farm

Farm Land

(Lil) Farm Life

myFarm

(Lil) Green Patch

Fantasy Farm

Farm Pals

 

So there was no point really.

 

The speed of game apps development is based on hours, and not the months and years that litigation takes to settle.

Zynga implement memes and changes to maintain customer loyalty in less than 24 hours per change and can monitor in real-time the positive or negative consumer reaction.

There has never been another business model in the history of the world that can respond (enmasse) to customer feedback so responsively and successfully.

 

The attention of the world is gravitating at an alarming(/pleasing)  pace towards mobile devices and social network activities.

 

As it does so, with new spectrum offerings emanating from the major Telcos as well as the smaller entrepreneurial players, and the capability of phones to utilize limited range sharing capabilities like P2P via Bluetooth, Wifi and 802.3 wireless connections, ACTA and other attempts at preventing file sharing are growing technologically dimmer ‘multo rapido’.

(Rapidly just doesn’t have the same sense of urgency.)

Source: Morgan Stanley Slide 47 (see References)

 

Besides, from the Zynga example we have learned that the revenues from successfully copying (the copyright industry call it infringement, everyone else calls it innovation) and then adding unique innovations add up to a nine figure annual number, so who has the time for instructing lawyers when there is so much money to be made?

 

So Copyright is really only for suing and not protecting?  In the real world of commerce it would seem so.

 

And your theory is that only companies with dead or dying business models need to sue?

 

Yep, that’s my thesis.

 

What about Apple –v- Chinese knock off clone iPhqnes?

Apple whinge about it, but Stephen Jobs is a realist. He knows that every time he innovates and releases a new version of the operating system or an upgraded phone it takes the cloners over eight months to get the knock-off clone correct.

 

 

In the meanwhile, his release window is six monthly so he always manages to stay ahead of the knock-offs.

And of course by not allowing the OS part of the manufacturing operation anywhere near a country outside of the US, he has managed to ensurre that the knockoffs have to use alternative operating systems and therefore do not make the grade.

 

In fact the technology world appears to be regularly four to six years ahead of the legislative and jurisprudence world which of course manages to cause a great deal of consternation to judges who are in fact often surprised mid decision with yet a new technological direction.

 

So ACTA in fact is unnecessary.

 

Correct.

 

 

It is by no means certain that things will become better when they change, but in order to become better, they have to change.

Georg Christoph Lichtenberg German physicist and author (1742-1799)

 

 

References:

 

Inside the App Economy

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_44/b4153044881892.htm

 

Economy + Internet Trends October 20, 2009

Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco

mary.meeker@ms.com / scott.devitt@ms.com / liang.wu@ms.com www.morganstanley.com/techresearch

Slide 47

 

Where to Spend Your Advertising Dollar…

by Tom Koltai on Mon 28 Sep 2009 04:09 AM EST

NEARLY A THIRD OF OUR LEISURE TIME IS SPENT ONLINE

 

Chess Politics Heritage & History

by Tom Koltai on Sat 11 Apr 2009 05:32 AM EST

phone cloners. Just like the American example. Rip off (copyright infringe) who you like as long as it's not an American Company. AND Hungary was and is a socialist regime. The operative word

 

Lets Talk about P2P Damages, Coffee and Bulldust

by Tom Koltai at 02:16PM (EST) on April 21, 2009  

 

Last Friday in a Swedish Court, the four pirates were awarded four years of jail time and financial damages against them (for running a Google search engine) of over three million dollars.

In February three Thai CD Pirates were handed out jail sentences under a year each and fined $14,200 each for pressing 306 CD-Roms per minute of pirated content for the last three years and selling them into the black-markets as originals .

 

P2P is aiding in lowering Crime.

by Tom Koltai on Sat 25 Jul 2009 04:35 AM EST

1992, was curiously also the year that crime rates started to drop in the USA; and 1998 was the year that another noticeable dip occurred. The year that Napster was born.

The Disagreement about Blogs

 

---

There are two point two new Blog sites created for every second of every day of the year. (around 175,000 per day.)

The blogosphere doubles every 236 days! Presently, there are around 77 million blogs,
It has been predicted that within three years, 50% of all content online will be user-generated.

---

One viewpoint is that :

From TNS Global website

NEARLY A THIRD OF OUR LEISURE TIME IS SPENT ONLINE

 

LONDON. December 8^th 2008: New figures released today reveal the staggering amount of time Brits now spend on the internet in their spare time – with the league table topped not by students, but by housewives.

 

And from Blogher

The majority of people consider Blogs are rated between somewhat reliable and highly reliable as sources of empirical data and product purchasing  advice/recommendations.

 

Blogs as a Source of Information

 

Source: The BlogHer/Compass Partners 2008 Social Media Study P15

 

And contrarily, from a leading Psychologist:

 

Now we discover people don't believe blogs - so stop blogging...!

 

A major survey of over 27,000 people has discovered that blogs are the least credible source of information online. Coupled with similar research on the trustworthiness of blogs, this most recent study suggests the end is nigh for blogging.

According to the study, we believe "word of mouth" over and above everything else. The TV news comes next, then online news with newspapers just a little bit behind. Blogs are way down the bottom, with only one in every ten people believing them.
  

And another contrary opinion - this time from Businessweek, headlined:

 

Only 16% Trust Corporate Blogs: Are They Worth Doing?

 

The response from Forrester Research is it depends. But the bottom line is that based on survey research the firm released a report today, it’s time for some rethinking of corporate blogs. (To get the report you have to hand over some contact data).

Forrester found that 16% of the people who read company blogs trust them—less than every other form of content they asked about, including print media, direct mail, even corporate emails.

 

So we understand that half the experts say Blogging is not worthwhile and the half saying it is.

BTW, the half whom claim that blogging was worthwhile seem to represent the female population rather strongly. This is inline with our discovery over the last two months that a great majority of the game players in Zyngas Facebook based Farmville game were averagely aged as being 27 year old females.

Because of our experience in online data usage (since 1987) we believe that wherever the girls are – the boys are sure to follow and that observation can now be confirmed with our recent stats collection on Farmville player sexes.

 

Chris and I both blog on this website, Our backgrounds are not dissimilar except that I entered the computer field once I completed uni and Chris entered the music business. We then both spent a considerable period of our lives being extremely entrepreneurial with some success and a couple of failures (on my part).

So Chris is our expert social networker and I am our spreadsheet guy.

 

You can tell the difference between our styles by reading some of the blogs. Chris is careful with his spelling, grammar and sentence structure, carefully hunting for the right balance of adjectives, verbs and nouns to present his views.

 

My online style is rather raw by comparison. My previous attempts at writing were always edited, so this new role of self-editing is obviously beyond my capacity.

The words flow and the fingers try to keep up, usually failing.

 

Chris is always asking me to be more careful with my presentation, grammar and spelling. And I respond (jokingly), “Do you want quality or volume?”

 

His reply is usually dismissive of my cavalier style but somehow we get through each of these editorial discussions and the Perceptric blog grows and grows.

 

During one of our “editorial quality” conversations recently I retorted to the repeated grammatical structure and spelling entreaty with an almost flippant, “It would appear that regardless of the poor layout and my bad spelling, we are doing better than the newspapers in retaining readers  attention”.

“We don’t have many readers (less than 100,000), but the ones that we do have are connecting with us in a more meaningful and much longer time than any of the major Australian Media sites do”.

 

“Are you sure?” asked Chris.

 

“Well, if you look at the time that the average reader spends on our little irrelevant blog and compare that to nearly anyone that has a few million bucks to run their blog – we appear to be creaming them. Do me a favour – pull up the Alexa ratings for Perceptric.com”.

 

“Yep, done”.

 

“OK, now add-in some premium media content – like ninemsn.com.au smh.com.au. afr.com.au and to balance the results include another Blog site like crikey.com.au, and then click compare and then Daily Traffic Rank”.

 

Chris and I then discussed the aspects of the different stats available on Alexa.

 

 

According to the Daily Traffic Rank it would seem that the field is dominated by Ninemsn almost neck and neck with the SMH with Crikey in third place, followed closely by the AFR and trailing invisibly at the back is Perceptric.

 

So if that’s all it takes to get advertising, then I think I will do a deal with Microsoft and get my name on the top of every Internet Explorer browser,

 

So now dear advertising reader, it’s your cue to ask, “But Koltai – how do we know they’re reading our ads”.

 

Ah, there’s another little tool in Alexa that allows you to see how long individual peeps stay on a site.

 

It shows a totally different picture.

 

It would appear the Perceptric is leading the pack.

Then, in daily page views per user, there is a battle royal for attention, but again with Perceptric gaining on the field..

 

 

So, should you, dear reader, spend your advertising dollar with Perceptric?

 

“Um, no, we don’t do advertising.”

 

But the evidence is clear that major media, while they have the initial attention of the consumer, also seem to lose it fast.

 

“Do you mean that people actually stay longer on the Perceptric blog than the leading Television and Newspaper sites of the land?”

 

“Well, yes. They do.”

 

“Why?”

 

Well this might be a reason….

 

“At Perceptric, we tell it like it is with very little spin. Neither Chris nor I have political aspirations. We have nothing to sell except our knowledge and we give away a lot of that knowledge for free.”

 

“But are you qualified?”

 

“You mean beyond our both being over 50, both entrepreneurs and our university studies?”

 

Yes. What qualifies you to broadcast your views to the world at large.

 

“Well nothing really. We don’t believe that one needs to be qualified to obtain user attention. If one however then gets users attention, then obviously one is giving the users what they want.”

 

“And what’s that, Koltai?”

 

“Read the Blog…”

 

Oh, and keep in mind, it doesnt matter if a site has 10 million users or 20 users. If the users only stay online long enough to leave, the user numbers dont really mean much.

Internet destinations that engage their readers/players/users for long periods of time should be your media buying target. (Per impression of course.)

 

Postcript:

 

We talked earlier about an article from Businessweek. Entitled, “Only 16% Trust Corporate Blogs: Are They Worth Doing?”

 

“It would appear that Businessweek, is up for grabs, according to http://www.dancewithshadows.com/business/bloomberg-among-potential-bidders-for-businessweek/

 

Bloomberg, the financial news agency, is considering a bid for BusinessWeek, the business magazine published by McGraw-Hill.

According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the interest shown by Bloomberg in buying BusinessWeek has “further crowded” the field of potential bidders, and also indicates Bloomberg’s intentions in continuing to expand beyond its core business of providing financial data, news, and analytics to professionals.

Quoting “people familiar with the matter,” The Wall Street Journal reported that the other potential bidders for BusinessWeek included Bruce Wasserstein, the chief executive of the investment bank Lazard Limited and who owns the magazine TheDeal and New York Magazine; ZelnickMedia; Joe Mansueto, founder of Morningstar; and private equity firms Platinum Equity, Warburg Pincus, and OpenGate Capital.

The bids for BusinessWeek will take place on September 15, 2009.

In July 2009, the United States-based publisher McGraw-Hill, which owns BusinessWeek, had said that it was “putting on the block” its financial magazine and also “exploring strategic options” for the magazine.

BusinessWeek, founded in 1929, has a circulation of 936,000 copies in the United States. The magazine’s main competitors in the national business magazine-class are Forbes and Fortune, both of which are published bi-weekly.

 

So the company that depended on the Forrestor Research report that said that only 16% of the world listened to Corporte Blogs is now being sold. Possibly consumers don't really trust the big Corporations anymore.

 

We wonder if the following has anything to do with McGraw-Hills decision? 

 

 

PPS: That’s all folks, until the next badly written, badly spelt, atrociously laid out, irreverent Blog article. Thank-you and it’s goodnight from me, and goodnight from him.

 

(Two Ronnies circa 1970)

 

PPPS

Damn I forgot the all important title - where should you advetise?

We think you should take a couple of adverts on facebook - and our suggestion? Place them next to Farmville for maximum bang for your buck.

But with that said - this advice is only good in Internet time. Next week? It will probably be a different Game.

This gives you the greatest access to 34% of the female game playing population most likely to be aged 27 years old and a housewife.

And I'm sorry I published this because I guess Farmville will be now be one of the most expensive words on Google.

References:

 

ALEXA

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.perceptric.com%2Fblog

 

Digital Divas

http://advertising.microsoft.com/WWDocs/User/en-us/ResearchLibrary/ResearchReport/Digital-Divas.pdf

 

NEARLY A THIRD OF OUR LEISURE TIME IS SPENT ONLINE

http://www.tnsglobal.com/news/news-6A7B1D614B284E20B26AA3A75601275B.aspx

Youtube Video Promotion for StopBigMedia.com

http://www.stopbigmedia.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We''ve enjoyed watching the growth of Farmville from nothing to the number one "Coolest Thing" on the internet.
OK - it's subjective - you might not like it - but nearly 50 million users do. Thats 2.5 times the population of Australia, 1/8 the population of the USA. So it's gotta be worth a mention.

The other day I blogged about Sony's Game division creating consternation and negative vibes throughout the world with the sheer volume of misdirection and bullshit they were promoting via direct and indirect web pages about the end of the world in less than two years and three months and counting... all for a couple measly million dollars for a movie that is bound to be a flop on the P2P networks. (Which we at Perceptric have found to have the uncanny ability, to predict which movies will exceed their opening weekend estimates and which ones will bomb.) I personally think that the Sony will suffer negative pushback for this movie - for being too commercial regardless of the economic, psychological and societal negative vibe consequences.

OK - back to Farmville and Big Music.

We have talked a number of times of the remix business as being intefral to new innovative content. Well here's the Farmville Rap.

Interesting and funny, but lets hope Shell, Texaco, IBM, Kyocera and others don't see this as a viable business model.......

Coz Advertising guys - it might work for Farmville - but my guess is - it aint gunna work so well for you guys.....

Earlier this year we blogged about the fact that Pornography appeared to be decreasing on the internet due to the wide variety of other content available via the P2P networks.

 

The other day we blogged about Facebook games as being an escape from the doom and gloom of the Global economy.

 

Historically, there are four recession proof industries during any financial crisis.

Beer, cosmetics, hosiery and perfume.

 

Now, it would appear that there is a fifth. Facebook.

 

Throughout the ages, each succeeding new publishing technology has been given an injection of wow factor (not the dying world of Warcraft); I’m talking "Wow, 'lookit' the girl on page 3, she’s cute".

 

 

 

 

Books, periodicals/journals, newspapers, radio, films, television, VCR’s, DVD’s, the Internet have all allowed adults to enjoy the “forbidden” fruits in the privacy of their homes.

 

Radio? Well you would have to be about 70 to remember the risqué radio plays that were the staple of the male imagination diet of the fifties, but yes, double entendre radio plays qualified as aural pornography and had exactly the same complaints (“devil inspired”) as does the Internet today. Even the iPhone now has “adult” apps available in the iStore.

 

Only Facebook has kept the halter on the descent into moral turpitude; and; it seems to be paying off.

 

By creating a porn free environment Facebook have developed a “trusted” new playing field just begging for new product commercialization.

 

And it’s paying off handsomely – the demographics would suggest that the average game player is a 27 year old female.

 

Who do all the advertisers want to reach?  The decision making 25-34 year old females.

 

OK back to the Porn.

 

Pornography is traditionally a word that describes material, that has no literary or artistic value other than to stimulate sexual desire.

 

So then how has Facebook  managed to grow so large without it?

 

I leave the reader with a question.

 

If the girl/guy of your dreams is on Facebook, and you are playing Farmville with her/him. Who needs Pornography?

 

Facebook is about connections and trust between persons on planet earth.

Person to person, without an intermediary, globally.

 

P2P – a ubiquitous publishing platform that has no need of artificial imaginary stimulants.

 

 

References:

 

“Hey, let’s get an App Store”

“Though, with the iPhone OS 3.0 release, Apple has lifted their limitations a bit and allowed adult content in the App Store;”

http://www.applelunch.com/2009/09/20/%E2%80%9Chey-let%E2%80%99s-get-an-app-store%E2%80%9D/

 

In 1996, I was in Teheran, negotiating the overflight of Iran for Qantas 747’s on their way to and from London-Singapore. By installing three Ground radar installations in Iran, Qantas was able to save millions off their annual fuel bill.

 

The problem was political. Did Iran want Australian planes overflying it’s airspace? Well it appears that money talks. If you throw enough money at anything – eventually, resistance weakens.

 

Qantas? What has that got to do with Zynga and Farmville?

 

And what’s all this about stocking up?

 

The new Hot air balloons in Zynga’s hot internet Game – Farmville.

 

Last week I blogged about product placement within the game – as opposed to the outside 

(which appears top be reserved for Facebook revenues.)

 

So if I was Zynga and my game was nearing it’s bell curve  peak –

 

 

what would I do ?

 

 

The Top 10 Facebook Applications. Source: http://statistics.allfacebook.com/applications/leaderboard/

Advertise the number two game of course.

 

Hey all you bored crop planters – get a life – come and be a Mafia bad guy……..

(Although if you do the pop-up wrong – thousands complain…..)

 

Zynga have a number (36 apps) of games all lined up at the starting gate.

 

Which of course helps to ensure that one of their products is always at Facebook number one.

 

OK – back to my hot air balloons.

 

Balloons a little bit like blimps – they have a large surface just begging for sponsorship.

 

 

So if I was Zynga, I would be talking to Facebook about buying some airspace over other Facebook pages and let those balloons fly.

 

And of course, each one carries a black sheep so wherever the balloons land – that lucky farmer receives a black sheep.

 

Brilliant.

 

Hold on Koltai – they haven’t done it yet…….

 

They will, they’re just getting clearance from air traffic control and “negotiating” the air corridor that they are permitted to fly in.

 

Those Zynga guys are pretty good at this marketing game…….

 

The problem is that once one person publishes a meme – every developer knows. It used to be that first mover advantage would take six months to a year to replicate and take advantage of. Not on Facebook. A Generic API means that everything can be copied. Actually, no, not can, IS copied because basically there are only so many ways that a command syntax can be executed within the Facebook walled garden.

 

I guess that’s why Moores law is out the window when application of it is tested against Facebook applications.

OK back to the balloons - there are two floating around this page..... of course - if you are a good Internet user - then you wouldnt see the flying balloons in this blog article (because scripts in your browser would be turned off) - so here is a static version. (Just imagine them floating over your page......)

 

 

References:

Holden blimp 'un-Australian'

Richard Blackburn, The Sunday Age, November 10, 2006

http://www.drive.com.au/Editorial/ArticleDetail.aspx?ArticleID=21508

 

 

 

Errata: It's been pointed out to me that Facebook just passed the three hundred million user mark and not the four hundred million. – Which obviously indicates early signs of dementia perhaps, on my part. - Hat-tip to David Goldstein from Link.

---

In Australia, the formation of a credit union can be organised with 500 members prepared to each bank (let’s say) $2,000 in a pooled trust fund.

Most countries around the world have similar legislation.

All one needs is a loyal membership and a couple of dollars. (Think frequent flyer miles.)

 

Now, lets see how we can give those four hundred million Facebook members some dollars so they can open that credit union account.

 

Over the last couple of days, Chris Gilbey and I have been mooting that the future of advertising on the Internet  will be sponsor and trademark identification as opposed to infomercials or click-through ads.

If a Farmville player is buying Yates Tomato seeds every time he plants a crop of Tomatoes, then he is being programmed as effectively as watching television advertising.

The concept of seeing a brandname everytime you click versus seeing it a few times on TV or on a billboard is vastly superior. Especially if you are clicking 500 times in an hour.

Next time he wants to plant tomatoes, in the real world, he/she won't even think about it - "Can I have the Yates seeds please."

 

The trick available to advertising sponsors of Facebook applications is to pay the users to view the advertising through redeemable application “points” or awards.

 

For example, lets stick with Tomatoes for the moment. For every 100 crops of tomatoes that you plant, lets say you receive a Yates Tomato Growers ribbon. Each Ribbon can be cashed in to Yates for $1.00.

The benefit to Yates?

 

Direct measurable advertising, complete with location, marital, age and sex demographics.

 

Yates will be able to manage stock control through the extremely accurate by the postcode cashback coupons.

 

Pay the users?

 

You’re a crackpot Koltai.

 

Well, perhaps I am, and perhaps I’m not.

 

Think of the savings to the "Brand only" Tradename advertiser:

 

No media buyer needed.

No Advertising company needed.

No Commercial Production house required.

No Graphics layout people to argue with.

 

But Koltai – How many times would the user select tomatoes as his crop?

 

Well, tomatoes mature in eight hours.

 

That’s three crops a day.

 

A 20 x 20 farm (allowing space for some cows sheep, trees and the little red barn) would optimally have around 300 “squares/plots” left for cropping.

 

I’ve been playing Farmville for five weeks.

 

Here’s my Ribbons for crops….

 

 

So I have clicked my mouse an aggregate of 54,000 times to produce the 31,874 crops.

 

And of course a third of those clicks could have had the word Yates Tomatoes attached to the cursor as I planted my Yates Tomato seeds.

 

Koltai – what about Furniture – I sell beds.

 

Well Farmville has other categories, animals, trees, buildings and collectible items like furniture, fencing, wine barrels, hay wagons.

 

 

But let’s be real for a moment. Not every advertiser will be able to advertise inside Farmville. There are other games and other applications. Pretty much with something to suit everyone.

 

So you’re recommending that everyone is issued with a Facebook card.

 

Yes, if they want one – and why wouldn’t  they. The card would automatically become the preferred payment methodology on the internet. Taking over from even Paypal.

 

So Koltai, micro-payments to the game players. How do we get that back from them?

 

Ahhh. I’m so glad you asked. Well you could sell them stuff. Like – Tomorrows essay due in at 9:00 can be had for only 2300 acres of Yates tomatoes planted in Farmville.

 

 I’m joking about the essay, but essentially, the consumers on Facebook would like to:

 

1.                   Shop from home.

2.                   Earn money playing games.

3.                   Don’t watch much traditional media anymore.

4.                   Don’t seem to read a lot of newspapers.

 

All of this would tend to suggest that I am not so much picking something out of the air but extrapolating the next logical growth of the Internet.

 

At the moment, over five hundred million players are spending hours in front of computers daily in a variety of Facebook applications.

But Koltai, there are only four hundred million Facebook users...... Ahhh, yes, that would indicate that many of them play multiple games. (Like watching two sitcoms and a movie).

Apart from the revenue to Facebook of the click-throughs on the right hand side of the screen,  there doesn’t seem to be any advertising revenue for the app developers yet.

 

Sponsorship of game and app elements will change that – dramatically.

Facebook Zynga Real Screen Division
Total Screen Space   =   39 squares x 34	39	34	1326	100%
Facebook advertising = 8 x 30 squares	8	30	240	18%
Zynga Advertising  =   3 x 29	3	29	87	7%
Support and Self Promotional Activities =  3 x 29	3	29	87	7%
Game  =  24 x 29	24	29	696	52%
Face book Administrative   =   4 x 39    (2 x 39)	4	39	156	12%
Unused Space (Red) = 2 x 30	2	30	60	5%

To me it would seem that 400 million users being wasted on just three click through adverts on the right hand side (albeit rotating); is a marketing and money making concept just begging to be delivered.

 

And Koltai, what happens to the Facebook click-throughs?

 

Oh, they can stay. After all, Just from click throughs, Facebook is realizing approximately 9-15 million per month. They need to pay for the ever growing FB-CDN Network.

 

But this sponsorship advertising. That’s aimed at the application developers.

 

Yes of course it is, but the cards? They can only be issued and managed by Facebook.

Of course there’s more money (or at least there used to be) in the float than almost any other business.

 

 

In other words if Gameplayers earn only $4.00 per month from playing, that equals a 1.5 billion dollar float within twelve months.

 

And with the hardcore Gameplayers, banking 40, 60 80 dollars per month?

 

Well, then we see something else. Then we see 25 billion.

 

 

Profitable business this click click thing.

It looks like online games might be about to change the way media and advertising companies interact with the Internet.

 

Believe it or not, the most expensive real estate in the world is a little red barn.

 

Nearly 40,000,000 million Farmville players have purchased one.

It uses up exactly 3 squares of virtual farm or 20 pixels by 15 pixels.

 

And these users paid 1.3 trillion (Farmville coins) dollars for their barns.

 

In real dollars, (Zynga allow their users to buy virtual dollars for real dollars at the rate of (Best Buy - $40.00 real money buys $70,600 in Farmville coins.)

 

 

Which values the little red barn at $16.99 (Real American Dollars).

 

If 40 million people buy a barn for $17.00, that equals $680,000,000 real dollars for a little 20 pixel by 15 pixel virtual barn.

 

Which then doesn’t do anything except look pretty – usually in the corner of the farm.

 

Of course, one can buy a barn by sheer hard work, clicking away like a demon (without having to fork out via mastercard, visa or paypal), but it takes anywhere from 7-9 days. Which of course is achieved by 3 mouse clicks for every crop, 2 mouse clicks for every tree harvest and a painfully slow chicken, sheep, goat, duck, cow or horse harvest (mainly because the game insists on saving itself or resetting after every two or three animals are harvested).

But lets get back to the little red virtual barn.

 

Imagine if the users could get a barn from day one.

 

  

 

 

Advertising sponsored ?

 

Well, let’s imagine that the Zynga guys think outside the (Second Life) square, they might think of something like this……..

 

 

 

 

So the Barn will end up with some billboard advertising.

 

 

 

Which of course will be seen by all of the farmers friends and their friends when the photos are shared around.

 

Total eyeball “click-thru’s for (obviously popular choice) Shell?

An estimated 26 million eyes per day (players only – based on two visits per day).

 

Gee, what is that worth? 2 cents each ?

Nope. The attention model here is hours, not 30 seconds.

 

The valuation should not be the same as click-through.

 

What else do the majority of the world do for at least a half hour per day?

 

They watch the news.

 

What is a prime spot in the news worth?

Well I guess it’s worth about $20,000 per 600,000 viewers.

So Koltai, a billboard on the farm selected by a player is worth 600K ?

No, its worth .03333 cents per eyes, and neighbours of eyes.

 

So how many is that ?

 

Amongst 13 million daily players ? Each of whom might visit 5 (low), 10 (medium), 15 (high)  of their neighbours farms?

 

Eyeballs Low	Medium	High
65000000	130000000	195000000
$     2,166,450	$     4,332,900	$     6,499,350

 

A shitload.

 

In other words, we’re not in Kansas anymore – Zynga are leading the pack in getting consumer attention; in fact about 150% up on the US TV Networks.

 

The big difference?

 

The Zynga “viewers” keep returning to the same piece of “stale” content, happily, eagerly.

 

Why?

 

We’ll talk about why later this week.

 

References:

 

It’s Official - Interactive Entertainment Kills off Cable TV, Newspapers, Magazines and FTA

http://www.perceptric.com/blog/_archives/2009/8/28/4302089.html

 

Perceptric Corporate Data

 

 

I am deeply *enamoured/in awe of the adoption wave that Zynga have created with their Farmville creation.

 

Of course, it helps if you have two million per month to spend on click-through advertising – however, that is a separate topic.

 

Farmville is an excellent example of the concept of innovation patenting.

Zynga took a popular meme, “Hobby Farms” at the peak of market interest, (surivivalists, end of the world hysteria,) and created an application that has managed to hold the interest for the most number of players of any game (within the time period of 90 days) around the globe.

 

However, with a weak (currently – in my opinion) endgame, the users attention would appear (at cursory examination) to be slipping.

 

7daysfarmville.gif

 

With only two exceptions, Adam (who doesn’t really count – because he’s a Geek – and I told him to play the game……J) and Gio who does count, my neighbours appear to willing to spend less time farming their plots.

 

However, there is another way to read the data.

 

If the lag time on each transaction introduces 270% delay then the resultant farming efficiency would also result in lower scoring.

 

We blogged about the time lag inefficiencies of Farmville here.

 

So are users leaving in droves? Or are they just tired of waiting for the constant

 

 

Lets check the user stats for Farmville.

 

 

 

 

 

Well, I don’t know about you dear reader, but it appears to me that growth is still there, very strong and continuing.

 

So what conclusion can I reach from the above two graphs?

 

Only one. Farmville users have implemented a voluntary code of conservation by becoming very possibly the first self policed internet ecologists – conserving bandwidth by planting longer growing crops.

 

In this age when industry has polluted our environment beyond easy repair, anything that creates an ecological meme is an interesting study in motivational technique.

 

In closing, I can’t help myself……

Google – Facebook is knocking

Hollywood – Facebook is knocking

Music Industry – Facebook is knocking

 

So I wonder who will open the door first……

* It's the Queens' English - stop complaining - just because you Americans never learnt to spell......

I was chatting to Chris yesterday about the addictive nature of many of the Facebook games.

I dropped a statistic on him:

 

Statistic – the Bureau of Economic Development (USA – BEA) have discovered that the average American watches four hours and eleven minutes of televised (inc. Cable) content daily.

 

Well, that is probably no longer the case…. On Farmville, I am collecting the stats of my Neighbours and comparing them to my own; and they are keeping up with me and in some cases (22%) exceeding my scoring ability.

 

That in itself is no mean feat. I am a fifty-year old economist and I live, breath and consume spreadsheets. So of course, the first thing I did was a comparative spreadsheet on what are the best crops/trees/animals per game square.

 

For example:

 

On a single Game square, one can fit 16 ducks, but only four horses. A Horse produces 84 coins every 3 days and a duck produces only 45 coins every 48 hours.

At first glance, it would appear to be neck and neck – until you discover that 16 ducks use up the same space as four horses and then of course – it’s all over for the geegees.

 

				Hours	Coins	Total	Per Hour
Ducks				48	45	720	15
Horses				72	84	336	4.666667

 

And I diced up the trees versus the crops, the experience (exp) points of each, the potential of my spending 1 hour per day or two hours per day tending to my farm and built a rule-set database in excel to determine what is the best crop/tree/animal utilisation of the available squares versus my time input.

 

Hey Koltai – that’s no fair – that’s cheating. If everyone did that – the game would be no fun.

 

And here we get to the crux of the matter. If no-one else has done a comparative spreadsheet, then eleven million plus players per day are wasting approximately 4 hours per day crop tending.

 

Me – I alternate between taking the spreadsheets advice and picking crops at random – allowing for an average mean playing time of one hour thirty-eight minutes per day.

 

So what does it mean when a growing percentage of the population are no longer watching advertising on TV. Are not going out and socializing and generally not procreating.

 

Well, the economy stands still.

 

Unless Farmville introduce user adverts, and forces players to have days off (so they can shop as a result of the adverts) and partake in social intercourse – hopefully leading to other forms of interaction, then the world economy will continue to decline.

 

So Koltai, your telling us that Farmville is bad for the economy.

 

Ummm, yes.

 

But isn’t it better than our kids watching fantasy content like horror movies or 90210?

 

Ummmm. No.

 

Farmville keeps kids off the streets, but my analysis is showing me that the average player ain’t kid sized. They’re a lot older.

 

Given that a percentage will be housewives taking a break in-between the baby crying, it would also seem that an awful lot are the rest of the community who have found a new “ostrich in sand” safe haven in a virtual crop growing community.

 

Unfortunately the only positive side effect is that with the new version of flash required, the older computers cant play the game without almost seizing up. I know, my 2.8 Ghz Dell with 2 GB of memory spits the dummy when I have multiple crops maturing.

 

So, Koltai, Farmville is good for the computer industry.

 

Yeah. In fact so good – I almost suspect Intel and AMD are major shareholders in Zynga.

(Ok, that was a joke – but one based on reasonable evidence of technical hardware requirements.)

 

So with a growing percentage of the world with their heads in the Farmville sand, what do you see happening next?

 

Well, if I were Farmville (Zynga), I would be looking at restricting game play to x hours per day per player.

In that way – the game can continue to grow, the server farms wouldn’t be losing 70% of their Ajax packets and hey – people might actually be able to contribute to the economy.

 

Today’s article is abbreviated because I have to get back to my game – I think I have some Blueberries maturing…..

 

 

P.S.

 

The title may be a bit misleading – I received a Wall posting the other day that was from a female player – (approx. 30 years old) – “Does anyone wanna come over to my farm and take part in some - clothing optional - plowing and harvesting?”  (Wording slightly change to protect her from weirdos doing searches).

 

So just maybe – Farmville is creating a new social environment. OK – the game started in June, 2009….. 9 months is…….  Lets regroup in April 2010 and see what the population is….

 

Possibly Farmville could be Obama’s secret weapon.

 

 

 

From – of course – the tongue in cheek department.