Here is something pretty interesting though. According to an article in The Scotsman Shell are making public their scenario planning documentation and the conclusions that they draw.
There are two key scenarios that emerge - codenamed "Scramble" and "Blueprints"
From the article:
Scramble is a scenario where self-interest predominates initially.
Voters in the West and in the developing world are unwilling to make
radical changes in lifestyle. Politicians concentrate on trying to
optimise within their own national perspectives. As a result there is
global competition for resources and little attention paid to cutting
energy consumption. Naturally, this will lead to new international
political tensions and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb.
The second scenario, "Blueprints" is more benign. Governments accept that climate change and skyrocketing global energy demand require a co-ordinated solution on the Kyoto model. This starts slowly – think the recent Bali accords – but gathers momentum in time to avoid the worst prospects for global warming and energy wars. New energy technology also plays a big role.
The second scenario, "Blueprints" is more benign. Governments accept that climate change and skyrocketing global energy demand require a co-ordinated solution on the Kyoto model. This starts slowly – think the recent Bali accords – but gathers momentum in time to avoid the worst prospects for global warming and energy wars. New energy technology also plays a big role.
