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View Article  Perceptions Driving Reality
The other day I posted the story below about Beach Front Real Estate to my Facebook page.

That got a response from someone in the UK who I know saying basically that there is no such thing as rising sea/tide levels because if there were a large chunk of London would be underwater with the Thames breaking its banks. (Unfortunately for the Brits the only banks being broken in the UK are the ones with your money in them!)

Unfortunately the person commenting doesn't get it. Things move slowly until they move fast. And when they move fast, it is too late to get out of the way of the momentum. The scientists continue to make their predictions about rising waters 20 or 30 or even 50 years into the future in order for people to be able to take remedial action now. Because it takes time to prepare.

The problem for most people is that they just can't think further ahead than tonight's dinner. Its a classic 'Hierarchy Of Needs' kind of issue. It also highlights the whole concept of perceptions driving reality.... And the issue here is not whether climate change has caused the waters to rise, but rather whether the actuaries at the insurance companies form a view of risk that is different to the one that the have had up to now...
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View Article  Ponerology
I just came across this word (Ponerology that is) in something I was reading, and googled it... That led me to this video... Interesting - watch it!


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View Article  Its Coming Apart (Part 2)
The fact is that while some people talk about the financial markets being in turmoil, the reality is that they are in chaos. The capitalist system requires that there is a fundamental belief in the old maxim “honour among thieves”.

The problem that we now have though is that banks don’t trust other banks. So while the central banks determine interest rates that money is lent to the banks, the banks themselves aren’t prepared to loan money out to other banks, because they don’t believe the published information about the state of the other banks’ balance sheets.

But that too is really just the tip of the iceberg and is there to take our focus off of the bigger problems that face us all.

The big problem is that we have too many people on the planet all consuming too much. That means that there is a very high demand for energy. Those billions of people in China and in India who are starting to experience the ability to purchase goods are doing so because they were infected with an idea virus. That idea virus – or meme – was possibly America’s greatest invention and greatest export.

That concept was the invention of a man called Edward Bernays. It is his story that signals the beginning of the great society that the west has enjoyed for the last 90 years and it is the unintended consequences of his invention that mean that we have to find a new meme that is more effective than the old to reinfect the population of the world.

What was this idea virus that Edward Bernays created? And who was he?

Edward Bernays was the nephew of Sigmund Freud. His family emigrated to the US from Germany by way of England before World War 1. Bernays was the father of the modern public relations business. He used some of the ideas that were the brainchild of his uncle and was able to convince clients of the ways that people thought and how their thoughts could be turned to the benefit of the clients’ needs.

One of the clients that Bernays worked for was Sarah Lee. They had a problem. They had created a cake mix that just needed water added to it and then could be popped  in the oven. The problem was that housewives were not buying it.

Bernays did some studies and came up with the conclusion that the housewives that the product was targeting felt that they had not personal involvement in the success of the baking of the cake. He proposed that the company change the formula for the product to require the user to have to break an egg and mix that with the water into the cake mix before baking the cake.

The rest is history. The new cake mix took off like wildfire and still today in every supermarket that you go to you will find cake mixes that require the user to break an egg into a bowl and then mix it with the powdered ingredients in the packet.

From that and a number of other quite ground breaking ideas and campaigns his legend grew.

At the end of World War 1 he was given a brief by the Chairman of one of the largest investment banks in New York, Lehmann Brothers. The Chairman was deeply concerned about the potential for the US economy to implode. Manufacturing had been vastly increased over the period leading up to the armistice in 1918 in order to supply the needs of the British and the French in their war with Germany.

The problem that the Chairman of Lehmann Brothers envisaged was that there would be no need for that manufacturing beyond the end of the war. The investment that the bank had in manufacturing was generating huge profits and he wanted to continue to reap the kind of rewards that the bank was getting used to.

The idea that Bernays came up with was a concept of pure genius. He suggested that America was a needs-based society. It needed to change and become a desires-based society. This idea drove the philosophy of manufacturing and marketing in America from that day on. It drove the concept of developing new designs for motor cars each year. It drove the concept of new clothing fashion each year. It drove the development of planned obsolescence to ensure that after a certain period of time things would break down even.

It took hold in the board rooms of America and was the single significant idea that helped make America into the greatest trading nation of the time.

The desires of people in America could never be fully satisfied. Once they had found the taste for consumption of one kind of goods, they started to look for a new good. And that demand meant that people wanted to keep up with the consumption of their neighbours.

As the growth in desires increased so too did the inventiveness not only of the manufacturers to build new products, but also of the bankers to help facilitate the growth of the demand. They found new ways to help people borrow more money so that they could buy more stuff. Because something else seemed to happen as a result of the transmission of this meme: People started to have greater self-esteem. They wanted to live in bigger and better houses. They wanted better jobs. And as their work force borrowed money from the banks their employers found that their staff became more compliant, because they were now entirely reliant upon their jobs to ensure that they could make the monthly payments on their house mortgage and their car and furniture repayments.

This produced the ultimate virtuous circle concept that venture capitalists treated as the underlying rationale for their businesses: “You can never go wrong investing in other people’s self-interest”.

The American Culture became a key part of Hollywood too. Movies and then TV programs made in the US for Americans reflected the culture that had grown up around the concept of satisfying a desires-based society.

America, totally obsessed with itself, largely ignored what was happening elsewhere in the world and just focused on its own market. World markets for movies and TV and music were thought of as irrelevant to most executives who continued to think of success in terms of whether a production was able to recoup its costs and make a profit in the domestic market. They were not alone.

The result was that around the world people enviously watched reruns of American programming like Dallas and saw profligate wealth that they could only dream of.

And then in order to feed the desire for ever greater profits American companies started to move their manufacturing to places where labour costs were low and skills high. That meant that in some markets where people were living in shacks with the only piece of furniture being a colour TV, that they could now get jobs. And now they too could aspire to the meme of living in a desires based society rather than a needs based one.

With the advent of the PC and the Internet, things went into hyperdrive. Suddenly like the fall of the Berlin Wall, the barriers to entry came down. Now not only could people aspire to own physical goods, but they could actually share content that would be able to be played on their devices too and at virtually no cost.

Globalization of product flow was one thing. Globalization of content was the next. Then came globalization of money flow.

And the huge irony at this time was that while no one in the US had been watching the governments of some of the countries that they were doing business with had been storing the financial wealth that had been created.

Of course this went totally against the grain for some people who believe that any political leader should steal as much of his country’s wealth as possible and put it into a numbered Swiss bank account.

The concept of not stealing the wealth of countries may be the most revolutionary concept of all. But the evolving tragedy for the US is the possibility that some politicians are honest. The sovereign wealth funds in the countries with the politicians that don’t steal the treasures of their countries (either because they are so huge or because they are honest – it doesn’t matter which, frankly) are the ones that are being relied upon to continue to loan money to the US to bail it out. And you have to wonder how patient they will continue to be with the US given the way that it manages its economy.

View Article  Its Coming Apart
I think it would be reasonable to state that we are living at the most intensely challenging period in the history of mankind.

I have no doubt too that every generation in history has felt the same thing. Every generation, after all, has had its end times adherents. Some quote the book of Revelation. Some quote Edgar Cayce. Others quote Nostradamus. Looking at what is happening around you and drawing from it the conclusion that the world is going to hell in a handbasket has been par for the course for aeons.

This time round you could be forgiven for getting caught up in the enthusiasm for the concept, though.

After all look at what we have happening to us and to the world.

In no particular order of importance we have a whole heap of nasties to keep us entertaining each other with Cassandra like predictions:

Let’s start with Global Warming. That is the one on everyone’s lips. Except for the sceptics. They think that the whole thing is bad science. But it gets more interesting as you peel off the layers of the onion. It appears that global warming is actually not happening as fast as it could because of particulate pollution. (That is the pollution that you get from the various pollutants that come out of airplanes, cars, power stations, factories etc). Particulate pollution causes what is called Global Dimming. It causes smaller droplets of moisture to be created in the atmosphere and it also tends to reflect the sun’s light back into space.

After 9/11 during the week or so when there were no flights the skies brightened considerably and it got warmer in the US. It appears from the climate modelling that has been done since then that has taken into account the effect of global dimming that if we really stopped polluting the atmosphere the effect of CO2 pollution would actually be much more severe than it is. So now we are caught in the double-whammy that effectively says that we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.

So that is the first big issue to get depressed about.

Then there is the prospect of war. Back in the late 90’s the CIA released a public report that predicted the future. I will grant you that when the CIA tells you anything, you first have to pinch yourself to make sure that you are awake. Then you have to ask yourself what the hidden agenda might be. So in the spirit of that kind of cynicism how would you respond to a report from the CIA that forecasts that there will be wars fought in the world over fresh water? Ten years on from the issue of that report we are in the midst of a global fresh water shortage. There are droughts in Australia, there are droughts in China, and the US.

Ironically there are no wars being fought over water yet. Perhaps it is because there are wars being fought over a lot of other things…. Like energy for instance, or drugs, or land. Good old traditional reasons to kill your neighbour and cause another generation of hatred and vendetta to be heaped onto all the previous generations of hatred.

So that gives us the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, the wars in Africa, the war in the Caucasus. There isn’t any shortage of wars. And the countries that are pushing to fight them don’t seem to understand that in every country that exists on the planet are people who are quite peace loving until you start lobbing bombs at them. Then for some reason they become quite angry and start doing quite anti-social things back again. And now in this age of peer to peer communication it isn’t just the corporate media that provides the insight into the rationale for fighting your neighbour. Now anyone who has a connection to the internet is just as likely to receive an email from a friend that provides an insight into why there is fighting that is precisely 180 degrees in the opposite direction to the information that is in the corporate mainstream media. It’s not a matter of “who do you believe?”. It’s a matter of, “I don’t trust any of the lying goons that were elected to run (insert country name here)”.

The truth of the matter is that all the politicians lie, or at minimum masquerade behind a tissue of lies, in order to do what is increasingly hard to achieve – control the populace.

And while we are on the big ticket items, there is the economy. Bill Clinton famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid”. And he was right. The global economy is crumbling before our very eyes.  It didn’t start with subprime. It started a long way before that. But subprime became the poster child for the excess of Wall Street and the greed of the banking class. We don’t need to understand how derivatives work to know that derivatives made a few people into billionaires and a lot more homeless.

These of course are just a few of the things that we are facing right now. These are the stories that are on the front pages of the newspapers. And these are the things that are frankly designed to make us fearful in order for the powers that be to keep things – and us – under control.

They reckon that these topics are ones that they can pretend that they have a solution for. And if they can convince us that there is a solution, for the most part we will keep relatively calm and peaceful and behave ourselves.

But the problem is that society as we know it is starting to come apart at the seams.

And most of us just don’t know how bad it is already, let alone how bad it is going to get.  

More tomorrow
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According to Wikipedia a perceptron is a type of artificial neural network.

Ergo a “Perceptric” is a person who creates or uses a neural network.

The Perceptric Blog is where Chris Gilbey posts thoughts, ideas, and links intended to stimulate thought and accelerate the transfer of ideas.

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