In 1993, I
wrote a paper entitled, How Ubiquitous Free Communication will Alter the Status
that because of electronic chat rooms [Prodigy, AOL and Compuserve] as more
women became enamoured of the connectivity options available to them via a
ubiquitous global network, that the divorce rate would rise dramatically.
that small companies that were fast out of the blocks in adopting the
technology would eat into and decrement larger companies profits.
that increasing cheap communication options would increase global commerce
that people would form online communities with like minded people.;
failed to note or foresee was, that;
like Ebay and Amazon that would decimate the bricks and mortar business models.
majority of commerce roads lead to the USA.
that all money flows were via the USA (advertising, product sales – PayPal
settlements were in US Dollars)
PC’s would decimate the media barons of yesterday.
engines would replace the 7:00 pm News
would rather give money to failing corporate business models rather than
encourage and fund new business models.
All in all
I give my 1993 paper a C. I missed the most important predictions.
digital Ecosystem comprising mainly:
Goggle Now answers more searches globally
on more topics daily than the number of pages of all of the books in all of the
libraries of the world.
eBay Collects commissions on more
daily sales than any other sales organisation in the world.
Paypal. Now processes more transactions
daily than any other single banking organisation in the world.
Youtube Now offers 20 hours per minute of
newly uploaded video content. (The content industry creates approximately 7
minutes of content every minute – that includes Television, films. music
videos, documentaries and News/Current
Facebook Now has more words in the daily
updates than all of the words of all the worlds daily newspapers.
these companies have become dominant in their own right.
Have any of
them had any Government funding to get where they are?
that I'm aware of.
changing the way the world does business? Most assuredly.
are successful not because of Government hand-outs but because they provide
what is needed by the consumers.
research the desired item of purchase, Amazon to buy books, videos electonic
gadgets, Paypal to pay for them, Youtube to learn how to use the item, Facebook
to show our friends our newly acquired
gadget, Ebay to sell them once we are
sick of them, and again Paypal to receive payment for them.
companies all started in bedrooms or garages. They grew and were successful
because of vision, determination, usefulness and appropriate funding at the right
all over Australia, inventors are inventing, hamstrung
by lack of funds, and totally unaware of how they can obtain those funds.
invention to become successful there has to be a series of propitious events
that occur at the right time, in sequence.
only a very small percentage of the inventions are ever funded correctly,
marketed correctly and supported correctly.
unfortunately, many don’t “Grok” the usefulness of the invention.
A number of
years ago, (1987) a gentlemen in Melbourne was featured in that wonderful (no
longer published) Australia Post magazine, with his Hydrogen reactor powered
Ford Falcon 500.
explained that although it was in fact a Hydrogen Reactor it was quite safe.
one sell that concept to an RTA Clerk to obtain road-worthiness registration
for the vehicle.
: Hydrogen Reactor.
the application would be declined.
the gentleman, had the choice of lying about the engine, or driving an
received funding, then Australians today would be paying pennies for the fuel
as opposed to dollars. Unfortunately, Steve came up against the wall of Self
Interest of Politicians and Lobbyists that required Petro dollars to remain in
office or to earn a living.
unfortunately generally can’t see beyond the next election.
had lobbied the Government with a five thousand dollar per day lobbyist by
drives on Hydrogen then:
Australia could export all of it’s oil to
would have zero emissions from their vehicles.
wouldn’t have to spend 11% of their pay cheques every week to pay for fuel.
would be cheaper therefore our lifestyle values would increase with more money
going into the economy for locally made products.
The local vehicle
industry would sell more Australian made autos (after all the rest of the world
is driving on hydrocarbons).
Australia would become the leading
economically successful nation on earth.
didn’t lobby government and we are still driving smoke belching hydrocarbon
burning vehicles; we still pay through the nose for the precious black gold and
are suffering as a nation because of the stranglehold of fuel oil on the
invention fizzled, yet the self serving interests were served.
This is the
choice that entrepreneurs and internauts face each and every day.
Government doesn't understand what you are doing, then you are probably
breaking the law if you keep doing it.
had Steve (the Hungarian guy in Melbourne with the mobile Hydrogen reactor)
not told anyone, then no-one would know, but then he couldn't have raised any
money for his invention.
peace of mind, I should explain that it is possible to construct a Hydrogen
reactor in your kitchen using caustic soda as the catalyst (to split H from 20).
invention that sees the light of day, thousands get forgotten.
people become connected it will be both easier and simultaneously harder to :
there are still opportunities e.g.: Twitter.
If you had
told me five years ago that fifty percent of the online world would be tweeting
their life stories via twitter daily, I would have laughed at you.
But this is
where peer pressure assists the meme.
If all your
friends are on Twitter, then to be part of the crowd, you also have to be on
Twitter because otherwise, you can’t follow what they are saying.
serving interests of companies that can afford to hire lobbyists to convince
Government to grease the wheels of commerce in their favour.
Broadcasting companies utilized the services of a Psychic and discovered what
we all now know about Google, Youtube and to a lesser extent about Paypal, I am
sure that none of those companies would exist today, having been legislated out
of existence before they made good.
appear that to hold a successful revolution, it must be:
under the nose of the persons that the invention disrupts.
It should sneak up gradually, not suddenly appear on the radar.
The product must appeal unilaterally to a specific demographic
The invention should have a unique aspect that is not replicated elsewhere.
Roll – To become a meme, it must apply to a young demographic. (They – the
young demographic will ensure that Grandma and Grandpa follow.)
are now virtually unread in their paper forms.
Companies that do not utilize Google are shutting their doors
In Australia, VOIP has almost displaced all
commercial voice traffic (Telstra local and std call fees).
Mortar Video stores and Record shops closing.
Government was essentially toppled from inside by the wide adoption of personal
computers facilitating non-censored traffic between individuals.
If you are
an inventor, good luck with your Revolution, because, that is what a successful
product roll-out requires. A revolution in thinking, a revolution in marketing
and a revolution in selling the concept to the funders.