The ED2K Networks disagree with Nielsens or "Koltai’s method of TV ratings"

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This is Part II in a series of articles entitled: The
Economics of Video Entertainment

 

In yesterdays article,  I commented that :

 

At Perceptric, we have commenced an attempt at applying
our P2P
Value
method against the relatively new science of hedonic valuation.

Early results have enabled us to see patterns that are
contra-indicative to standard online Nielsen type
ratings.

 

Programs that would appear to be decreasing in popularity
on TV would appear to be increasing in popularity on the P2P networks.

 

e.g.: Flash-forward.

 

Flash Forward? Every statistic appears to publicly call me a
liar.

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Source: http://www.tvu.org.ru/index.php?show=episodes&sid=27955

 

Yep it looks like it’s dying. But hang on a minute, lets see
the clicks per day.

A Histogram of the data shows us a very different picture.

 

image

 

It shows solid growth with the exceptions of the 7th
and 10th episodes.

 

What do I base this on?

 

Hits per day.

 

Episode

HPD

E1

44.46723

E2

46.09355

E3

48.05903

E4

50.77546

E5

53.82808

E6

52.8084

E7

49.19266

E8

59.12285

E9

64.89869

E10

48.37375

 

Therefore regardless of what Nielsens or anyone else are
saying, Flashforward has an audience that is growing at 0.0284x per day.

 

Not
enough you say?

 

Okay lets
compare it to the most downloaded TV series of 2009 which was House.

 

image

 

Hits per day.

 

Episode

HPD

E1+2

60.91882

E3

60.48799

E4

62.06326

E5

62.28052

E6

70.56682

E7

80.82763

E8

80.84548

E9

88.08141

E10

97.45169

 

Or, growth is at the rate of 0.0677x per episode.

 

So was House always a hit?

 

Not on the ED2K networks.

 

Here’s the results for the first ten episodes of house from
series 1 (2004).

 

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In other words losing user attention at the rate of -0.0283x
per episode.

 

But Koltai, House started in 2004.

We didn’t have any near as many people connected via high
speed DSL in 2004.

 

Ahh yes well, now we get back to what I was talking about
yesterday.

 

Hedonic Value.

 

The last twelve months have been filled with discussion and
concern about the “end days” of the world with doomsayers telling us that December 21st 2012 is it.

 

There is little discussion about the Dec 21st
being the traditional first day of Winter and the natural end of the annual
Spring, Summer Autumn growing calendar.

 

Educated people are aware of these facts and typically
ignore the doomsayers. However there are billions that believe everything that
comes out of the little box that we call TV.

 

“End of the world is coming Mother, it said so on the TV.”

“Well I better go and make the beds and sweep the porch
then……”

 

Flashforward has involved itself in the doomsday conspiracy meme
and mentioned the Haldron Collider  (As
has another popular show, “The Big Bang Theory”).

 

Ears perk up. Haldron Collider
 End of the World!!!!! (Burn the Witches,
where is my necklace of Garlic.)

 

The most prized hedonic possession is a combination of life,
liberty and health.

Of course if you live in Australia
or one of the lucky countries in the world, these are taken for granted and not
considered individually valuable.

 

Possibly one has to be a survivor of the Gulag populated
salt mines to understand the definition of freedom.

 

Subconsciously however, humans are aware that life and
living has a priority attached.

On the basis that Hedonic enjoyment can only be experienced
by a live human, therefore let us give being alive on 22 December 2012 a Hedonic value of 100.

 

With everything else allocated a value less than 100.

 

Therefore programs about the highest (human) valued topics
are likely, regardless of their acting, special effects or plot, likely to do
quite well.

 

e.g.:  the BBC are
having some success with their Horizon series:

 

BBC Horizon – 2009-11-03 Who's Afraid Of A
Big Black Hole.avi
746 MB

 

and

 

BBC
Horizon – Lost Horizons – The Big Bang.avi
746 MB

(Which is actually receiving more hits than Flashforward.

 

Stay tuned, Hedonic Valuation of viewing choices is
just starting to get interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

Qualification
of Data.

TVU is
only one from amongst approximately 87 ED2K indexes

 

 

 

References:

Flashforward Partial Plot Outline….

http://bunchofnerds.com/2009/10/physics/large-haldron-collider-sabotaged-by-its-own-future-cern-physicist-arrested-charged-w-working-w-al-qaida/

 

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