May 09
27
The Rising Tide Of Government Rhetoric
Here are some more thoughts on something I blogged earlier:
I don't know if you have noticed, but I certainly have.
Over the last week or so there has been a rising tide of government rhetoric that is tantamount to the Howard message, “We are alert, but not alarmed”.
I am not sure what sources of information are available to the top bureaucrats – and politicians – but I can hazard a guess…. Probably from organizations that have multiple letter acronyms as names – just like NATO (but different!).
Here is one of the stories that are out there at present:
The startling estimate by top virologist Professor John Oxford comes as
leading scientists are warning that the agency's announcements on the
spread of the disease are “meaningless” and hiding its true extent. And
it tallies with official estimates made in the United States.
Here is another:
have seen business boom in the past few months as an increasing number
of Americans spooked by the economy rush to stock up on gear that was
once the domain of hardcore survivalists.
These people
snapping up everything from water purification tablets to thermal
blankets shatter the survivalist stereotype: they are mostly urban
professionals with mortgages, SUVs, solid jobs and a twinge of
embarrassment about their newfound hobby.
Over the last couple of days the continuing noise relating to the swine flu epidemic is one major one… I would venture to think that the government is starting to look at computer models of how pandemics spread and death toll numbers.
The path of a pandemic appears, from what I have read to date, to take about two years to run itself out. That is two whole flu seasons in each hemisphere. We, in the south, are going to get the first impact this winter. The northern hemisphere is not expected to get the brunt of swine flu until the end of this year.
But the way that it is being spun by the media with the stories at or near the top of the news, together with comforting statements from the minister, leads me to believe that there is a very real concern that things are not looking too good. Not right now, but soon…. No one is talking about computer models of the way that pandemics roll out, but bear in mind that we now have ships arriving in Sydney carrying passengers that have tested positive where the ships have not stopped at a port where there is any known swine flue occurrence.
So in that event, where did it come from?
This is the part that I would think is starting to scare some of the people in Canberra.
And the modeling that would be the scariest is what happens when the people in charge of food and fuel transportation show symptoms and need quarantine? That is when the public starts to get it, because the supermarket shelves are somewhat bare for a day or so. When that happens and when the rumours start to fly there will be a run on food….
This is something that is set to happen possibly this winter, but almost certainly during the next 24 months. Now I know that some people will think that I am being alarmist, and that is fair enough. I just happen to think that whereas in prior crises the politicians have had a certain level of confidence that they project, in this case I see Mssrs Rudd, Swan, Roxon and others, looking like they have some really big problems to deal with…. Interesting to see how they play it…