Dec 08
27
Insights Into The Future
Here are the predictions of the experts on how long, how deep, how painful the recession will be in the US and how soon it will start to turn around… These are the people who not only saw the meltdown coming, but were prepared to stake their reputations on it…
Some examples of what they are saying:
NOURIEL ROUBINI, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor at New York University
WHAT HE SAID:
There is going to be a recession next year … The bursting of the
housing bubble — we have not seen it yet — is going to lead to
broader systemic banking problems. It is going to start with the
subprime lenders … and then it is going to be transmitted to other
banks and financial institutions all over the country. — September 7, 2006, speech to the International Monetary Fund
HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009:
I expect that the recession will be very severe and that it won't be
over before the end of 2009. And even though we might technically be
out of recession in 2010, annual growth could be just 1.0% to 1.5% for
several years if the credit crunch remains severe. I think there is a
further 15% to 20% downside risk for global and U.S. stocks, and a
further 15% to 20% downside risk for commodity prices. So 2009 will be
a year of recession and deflation.
PETER SCHIFF, president of Euro Pacific Capital
WHAT HE SAID:
This is going to be an enormous credit crunch. The party is over for
the United States … [Subprime] is not a tiny [problem], and it's not
just subprime — it's the entire mortgage market. — August 18, 2007, Fox News
HIS PREDICTION FOR 2009:
The dollar is going to resume its fall, leading to a resurgence in the
bull market in commodities. That will pierce the bubble in the bond
market, causing interest rates to go up. So we're going to be in a
depressionary environment, but with rising prices and rising interest
rates. Our economy will be a mess for years and years to come.