Sep 08
6
Global Chess Game
Its amazing how many people seem to believe that there are surprises when it comes to what nations do. There are no real surprises. Instead there is scenario planning, psychology, brinkmanship, bluff and double-bluff, and huge amounts of money spent on projecting, or giving the appearance of projecting, power.
Very few of us truly know what is going on in the minds of the people in power. We can only imagine. But one thing is for sure – things don't happen by accident.
I came across an analysis of the grand chess game being played out in the Caucasus that provides one hypothetical deconstruction of Georgia, the US and Russia that is worth reading.
grasp the recent upheavals in the Caucasus, it is
necessary to view the conflict as but a minor
skirmish in a far more significant geopolitical
struggle between Moscow and Washington over the
energy riches of the Caspian Sea basin — with
former Russian President (now Prime Minister)
Vladimir Putin emerging as the reigning Grand Master
of geostrategic chess and the Bush team turning out
to be middling amateurs, at best.
The ultimate
prize in this contest is control over the flow of
oil and natural gas from the energy-rich Caspian
basin to eager markets in Europe and Asia. According
to the most recent
tally by oil giant BP, the Caspian's leading
energy producers, all former “socialist republics”
of the Soviet Union — notably Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — together
possess approximately 48 billion barrels in proven
oil reserves (roughly equivalent to those left in
the U.S. and Canada) and 268 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas (essentially equivalent to what Saudi
Arabia possesses).