Story on the front page of the WSJ this morning says that investment pros are moving away from risky plays into big stocks and away from consumers. There is concern about 'near term speculation' is the thrust of the story…

Then on Om Malik's blog, there is a story about the Myth and Reality of Web 2.0.  This deals with the host of me too applications that have come into the space and the fact that a lot of the big guys have now released either enterprise or consumer apps as add ons to their normal offering to give consumers enough of the Web 2.0 functionality to satisfy them for the moment (People are hungry – well let them eat cake).

Are these two disparate items linked and running in parallel? A move away from risk? Or is this more about people starting, once again, to become really rational?

And while we are at it, what about this huge wave of online video sharing together with the frantic search for business models that is taking place? Is it a fad – or is this the future? 

My sense is that there are some fundamental trend waves that need to be watched as carefully and not confused with let's say the wavelets inbetween.

There is no doubt that there is a major evolving wave that is toward mobility of consumption of content. And that there is also a bifurcation of consumption – everyone in the household is now looking at a screen rather than the shared experience of TV. One person in the family may be watching 24 on TV. Another doing some post production on some video in preparation to uploading it to Revver. Another watching sport on their mobile phone. and another updating her MySpace page. Each one now has a specific intent of engaging with his or her screen. There is no need any more to sublimate one's need to that of the rest of the household. This a significant social change and it is not about to stop anytime soon.

This has not gone unrecognized by advertisers and will mean over the next two years that the advertising dollar will absolutely move away from traditional media to new media. And not slowly. There will be a tsunami as brand and product managers start to see their peers actively spend competitor brand marketing $$ in the space.

So Web 2.0 may turn out to be a meme of temporary interest. The big game in town is the rising tide of ad dollars. And regardless of what the WSJ has to say on the matter, it will be a risky game, and there will be big, big winners.

Just like in the gold rush, the guys selling the shovels will make a lot of money. But equally there will be those who strike real gold.

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Posted in Main Page by Chris Gilbey No Comments Yet